Group E · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Both sides run a possession dominant system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day. Ivory Coast's aggressive press (PPDA 13.7) against Germany's deeper build-up (PPDA 17.8) creates a clear territory question: can Ivory Coast force errors high up, or will Germany play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Both sides run the same system (possession dominant), so execution quality separates them, not tactical asymmetry. The scoring threat is evenly split: Niclas Füllkrug (6.2%) and Franck Kessié (8.3%).
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
The model's 29th-ranked side against the 6thth. Group stages reward the underdog who executes a clear plan.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Germany or Ivory Coast.
- Stage:
- Group E · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 20 Jun
Germany
Germany come in at close to full strength.
Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast come in at close to full strength.
Germany and Ivory Coast both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Germany minus Ivory Coast: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 30'GoalF. KessieF. Kessie scores for Ivory Coast.
- SubstitutionN. Schlotterbeck· A. RudigerGermany change: A. Rudiger.46'
- SubstitutionL. Sane· J. LewelingGermany change: J. Leweling.60'
- SubstitutionJ. Musiala· D. UndavGermany change: D. Undav.60'
- SubstitutionA. Pavlovic· N. AmiriGermany change: N. Amiri.60'
- GoalD. Undav· N. AmiriD. Undav scores for Germany.68'
- 75'SubstitutionA. Bonny· E. GuessandIvory Coast change: E. Guessand.
- 75'SubstitutionI. Sangare· S. FofanaIvory Coast change: S. Fofana.
- 75'SubstitutionA. Diallo· S. AdingraIvory Coast change: S. Adingra.
- 82'SubstitutionW. Singo· G. DoueIvory Coast change: G. Doue.
- 85'SubstitutionY. Diomande· N. PepeIvory Coast change: N. Pepe.
- SubstitutionK. Havertz· L. GoretzkaGermany change: L. Goretzka.85'
- GoalD. Undav· F. NmechaD. Undav scores for Germany.90'+4
Player involvement
Germany
Ivory Coast
Pre-match forecast
goals
A probabilidade publicada para esta partida é fixada na confirmação das escalações (≈1 hora antes do início) e não se atualiza depois. É o número que a revisão pós-jogo cobra. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo na seção Live é uma estimativa separada, com atraso e descritiva; ela não substitui a previsão publicada.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.7%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–011.3%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.6%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Germany win· realised61.3%
- Draw23.8%
- Ivory Coast win14.9%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.