Group E · Matchday 2
← Previsione pre-partitaLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Germany win61.3%
- Draw23.8%
- Ivory Coast win14.9%
Analysis
The model rates Germany as clear favourites at 61.3%, with Ivory Coast at 14.9% and the draw at 23.8%. The Elo gap is substantial at 247 points in Germany's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group E fixture with advance probabilities of 98.5% for Germany and 72.9% for Ivory Coast.
Tactical matchup
Both sides share a possession dominant identity — expect a contest of execution within similar tactical frameworks. Ivory Coast press significantly higher (PPDA 13.7) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.
Key battlegrounds
Germany need to control tempo through midfield — their possession-based approach depends on dictating rhythm. Ivory Coast need to control tempo through midfield — their possession-based approach depends on dictating rhythm. The individual battle features Niclas Füllkrug (P(scores) 6.1%) against Franck Kessié (8.3%) — their impact could prove decisive. Ivory Coast play a more direct game while Germany build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.
Match storyline
At 14.9%, an Ivory Coast result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Germany or Ivory Coast.
- Stage:
- Group E · Matchday 2
Both sides have a few players doubtful for this match; unlock the full breakdown of how these absences might impact the contest with a Pass.
La calibrazione post-partita è gratuita. Al termine di questa partita, il riepilogo previsione vs risultato (probabilità pre-partita vs esito reale, Brier score, log loss e xG finale vs previsto) viene pubblicato nella pagina riepilogo, aperta a tutti.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Germany v Ivory Coast plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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