Group E · Matchday 2
← Maç öncesi tahminLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Germany win61.3%
- Draw23.8%
- Ivory Coast win14.9%
Analysis
The model rates Germany as clear favourites at 61.3%, with Ivory Coast at 14.9% and the draw at 23.8%. The Elo gap is substantial at 247 points in Germany's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group E fixture with advance probabilities of 98.5% for Germany and 72.9% for Ivory Coast.
Tactical matchup
Both sides share a possession dominant identity — expect a contest of execution within similar tactical frameworks. Ivory Coast press significantly higher (PPDA 13.7) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.
Key battlegrounds
Germany need to control tempo through midfield — their possession-based approach depends on dictating rhythm. Ivory Coast need to control tempo through midfield — their possession-based approach depends on dictating rhythm. The individual battle features Niclas Füllkrug (P(scores) 6.1%) against Franck Kessié (8.3%) — their impact could prove decisive. Ivory Coast play a more direct game while Germany build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.
Match storyline
At 14.9%, an Ivory Coast result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Germany or Ivory Coast.
- Stage:
- Group E · Matchday 2
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Maç sonu kalibrasyonu ücretsizdir. Bu maç bittiğinde, tahmin ve sonuç özeti (maç öncesi olasılık ile gerçekleşen sonuç karşılaştırması, Brier score, log loss ve gerçekleşen xG ile tahmini xG) şu sayfada yayımlanır: özet sayfası, herkes için açık.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Germany v Ivory Coast plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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