Group E · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Germany
2:1
Ivory Coast

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Live descriptive stats

GermanyIvory Coast
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Germany1.691.83+0.14
Ivory Coast0.841.23+0.39

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
16
9
Shots on target
7
2
Possession (%)
59%
41%
Corners
8
3
Fouls
5
7
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Both sides run a possession dominant system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day. Ivory Coast's aggressive press (PPDA 13.7) against Germany's deeper build-up (PPDA 17.8) creates a clear territory question: can Ivory Coast force errors high up, or will Germany play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Both sides run the same system (possession dominant), so execution quality separates them, not tactical asymmetry. The scoring threat is evenly split: Niclas Füllkrug (6.2%) and Franck Kessié (8.3%).

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

The model's 29th-ranked side against the 6thth. Group stages reward the underdog who executes a clear plan.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Germany or Ivory Coast.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group E · Matchday 2
Date:
20 Jun
Availability

Germany

Germany come in at close to full strength.

Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Germany and Ivory Coast both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

ライブ記述的スタッツと遅延付きライブ勝利確率 · 約30秒ごとに更新

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Germany (above the line)Ivory Coast (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 30' · F. KessieGoal, 68' · D. UndavGoal, 90' · D. Undav

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Germany minus Ivory Coast: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

GermanyIvory Coast
  • 30'GoalF. KessieF. Kessie scores for Ivory Coast.
  • SubstitutionN. Schlotterbeck· A. RudigerGermany change: A. Rudiger.46'
  • SubstitutionL. Sane· J. LewelingGermany change: J. Leweling.60'
  • SubstitutionJ. Musiala· D. UndavGermany change: D. Undav.60'
  • SubstitutionA. Pavlovic· N. AmiriGermany change: N. Amiri.60'
  • GoalD. Undav· N. AmiriD. Undav scores for Germany.68'
  • 75'SubstitutionA. Bonny· E. GuessandIvory Coast change: E. Guessand.
  • 75'SubstitutionI. Sangare· S. FofanaIvory Coast change: S. Fofana.
  • 75'SubstitutionA. Diallo· S. AdingraIvory Coast change: S. Adingra.
  • 82'SubstitutionW. Singo· G. DoueIvory Coast change: G. Doue.
  • 85'SubstitutionY. Diomande· N. PepeIvory Coast change: N. Pepe.
  • SubstitutionK. Havertz· L. GoretzkaGermany change: L. Goretzka.85'
  • GoalD. Undav· F. NmechaD. Undav scores for Germany.90'+4

Player involvement

Germany

D. Undav60' Off · 68' Goal · 90'+4 Goal
AN. Amiri60' Off · 68' Assist
AF. Nmecha90'+4 Assist

Ivory Coast

F. Kessie30' Goal
試合前モデルキックオフ前に固定

Pre-match forecast

Germany win
64.1%
Draw
23.8%
Ivory Coast win
12.1%
Germany
1.69
expected
goals
Ivory Coast
0.84

この試合の公開確率はスタメン確定時（キックオフ約1時間前）に固定され、その後は更新されません。試合後の振り返りが照合するのはこの数値です。ライブセクションのライブ勝利確率は別枠の遅延付き・記述的な推定値で、公開済みの予測に取って代わるものではありません。

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    12.7%
  • 1–1
    12.0%
  • 2–0
    11.3%
  • 2–1
    9.6%
  • 0–0
    8.6%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

2 – 1
Germany win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Germany win· realised
    61.3%
  • Draw
    23.8%
  • Ivory Coast win
    14.9%
Brier score
0.229
Log loss
0.490
xG (final / predicted)
1.83 / 1.82 · Germany
1.23 / 0.79 · Ivory Coast
P(realised outcome)
61.3%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

予測 vs 結果の完全な振り返り →

ライブ確率の仕組み。 公開済みの試合前予測はスタメン確定（T-1h）時点で凍結され、キックオフ後は変わりません。試合後の振り返りでは、この凍結された数値を結果と照合します。試合中に表示されるライブ勝利確率は、同じモデルを現在のスコアと残り時間に合わせて読み直したものです。約1分ごとに更新され、常に遅延があり、記述的なリサーチ数値であって、遊技商品でも何らかの価格でもありません。全体の枠組みは /docs/methodology/ を参照してください。