WC2026 Pass

Less than a stadium beer. Full picture for every remaining match.

104 matches, 48 nations, one calibrated probability model that refits as results come in. Buy the Pass once, get every forecast, every fixture breakdown, and every data endpoint through 31 December 2026. No subscriptions, no auto-renewal.

Track recordTested on 987 out-of-sample matches across 24 major tournaments since 2014. 91 matches graded so far this World Cup. See the live scorecard →

24h money-back, no questions asked·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.

10% offVoucher KNOCKOUT10 applied.

Free

Your Pass

$0forever

The full tournament forecast, updated after every match day. See who wins, who qualifies, and who starts, for all 48 nations.

Tournament-winner and stage-by-stage probabilities for all 48 teams, updated live through the tournament
Country deep-dive pages with projected XIs and 26-man squads
Per-player composite ratings, xG and xA per 90
Top scorer rankings with per-country breakdown
Knockout bracket and group-stage standings that update as results land
Full research posts and core methodology docs
10 free API + MCP calls to try the model output in a notebook or assistant

No sign-in required.

Sale

Standard Pass

$15$13.5USD one-time

$0.13 per match · valid through 31 Dec 2026· 24h money-back, no questions asked

The match-by-match deep dive. Calibrated H/D/A probabilities, scoreline grids, and tactical analysis for every fixture, updating as the bracket fills in.

Everything in Free, plus:
Per-fixture probabilities for all 104 matches (H/D/A, expected goals), recalculated after each round
Scoreline distribution, win-margin and goal-total breakdowns
Half-time / full-time grid, first-goal timing, comeback probabilities
Per-fixture anytime-scorer probabilities
4-model side-by-side comparison: see where the models agree and where they diverge
Per-fixture analytical notes: tactical matchup, key battlegrounds, situational factors
What-if scenarios and counter-narrative research pages
30 API + MCP calls to pull the model output into a notebook or assistant

Sale

Pro Pass

$35$31.5USD one-time

$0.30 per match · valid through 31 Dec 2026

The full data pipeline, live through the tournament. Unmetered API and MCP access, updated after every match day. Build on the data, connect your AI assistant, or pull the whole snapshot into a notebook.

Everything in the Standard Pass, plus:
Unmetered MCP server: connect Claude, Cursor, or any agent to the live model in one command
12 JSON/CSV API endpoints, all updating after every match day through the tournament
Long-lived API key: Bearer auth for notebooks, CI, and scheduled jobs
Bulk snapshot: all 11 source JSONs in one zip with sha256 manifest
Historical tournament slicing: query any major (FIFA WC, Euros, AFCON, ...) by year
Starter recipes: load the snapshot in pandas, fit a baseline model, score it with Brier
OpenAPI 3.0 reference at /data/api/ with machine-readable spec
Research-use licence, no attribution required

Not ready for a Pass? Follow the calibration story for free.

Best-effort basis. All predictions on this site are statistical model outputs and may be wrong. The Pass sells access to research content, not guaranteed outcomes. See our terms of use for the full disclaimer and refund policy.

Pro datasets — what's inside

9 datasets, updating after every match day

Results flow back into the model after each round: revised probabilities, updated brackets, and new fixture forecasts land in the API within hours. Every dataset is reachable as JSON or CSV (?format=csv). The preview below is the live row shape.

/api/v1/forecast/
Per-team forecast across all 48 nations — tournament-win, stage-by-stage, and group-finish probabilities.
48 rows · refreshed 2026-07-09
Schema preview
team_id · name · confederation · tournament_prob · p_advance · p_r16
/api/v1/fixtures/
Per-fixture forecast for all 104 matches — calibrated H/D/A probabilities, expected goals, and headline derived probabilities.
104 rows · refreshed 2026-07-09
Schema preview
fixture_id · home_team_name · away_team_name · kickoff_utc · p_home · p_draw · p_away
/api/v1/teams/
Canonical WC2026 team list — confederation, FIFA rank, host flag, group letter.
48 rows · refreshed 2026-05-29
Schema preview
team_id · name · confederation · group · fifa_rank
/api/v1/players/
Slim per-player index — name, position, current club, career goals + assists.
1,215 rows · refreshed 2026-06-09
Schema preview
player_id · name · nation · position · career_goals
/api/v1/predicted-squads/
Projected 26-man squads per nation, split into starting XI vs bench with per-player composite ratings.
1,248 rows · refreshed 2026-06-23
Schema preview
team_id · slot · player_id · name · position · composite_rating
/api/v1/majors/
Per-team most-recent appearance in each major tournament — finish, W-D-L, coach continuity flag, squad-pool overlap.
106 rows · refreshed 2026-06-24
Schema preview
team_id · tournament · year · finish · w · d · l
/api/v1/h2h/
All-time head-to-head records between each WC2026 team and the three group-stage opponents they face.
144 rows · refreshed 2026-06-24
Schema preview
team_id · opponent_name · n · w · d · l
/api/v1/schedule/
WC2026 group-stage schedule — one row per team-matchday with date, opponent, host city + country.
144 rows · refreshed 2026-06-24
Schema preview
team_id · matchday · date · opponent_name · city
/api/v1/anytime-scorer/
Top-50 anytime-scorer rankings — P(scores at least once) plus per-stage scoring probabilities.
50 rows · refreshed 2026-06-23
Schema preview
rank · name · team_id · p_scores_one · e_matches