Group D · Matchday 3
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Neither side has a rigid tactical identity. Both adapt to the opponent, so the first 15 minutes will reveal who imposes their plan first. Turkey's aggressive press (PPDA 23.5) against United States's deeper build-up (PPDA 27.7) creates a clear territory question: can Turkey force errors high up, or will United States play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Turkey adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. Folarin Balogun carries the marginally higher scoring probability (9.9% vs 6.8%).
Off the pitch
Turkey travel 11,463km, 4x United States's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Tim Ream. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for United States or Turkey.
- Stage:
- Group D · Matchday 3
- Date:
- 25 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
United States
United States: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.
- DoubtChristian Pulisic, the first-choice forward, is recovering from Calf injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
Turkey
Turkey come in at close to full strength.
Availability runs in Turkey's favour here: United States are managing a fitness concern over Christian Pulisic, while Turkey's projected XI looks intact.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, United States minus Turkey: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalA. Trusty· S. BerhalterA. Trusty scores for United States.3'
- 10'GoalA. Guler· B. YilmazA. Guler scores for Turkey.
- Yellow cardS. Berhalter· RoughingS. Berhalter is booked — Roughing.19'
- 31'GoalB. Yilmaz· O. KokcuB. Yilmaz scores for Turkey.
- GoalS. BerhalterS. Berhalter scores for United States.49'
- SubstitutionT. Weah· C. PulisicUnited States change: C. Pulisic.58'
- SubstitutionG. Reyna· S. DestUnited States change: S. Dest.76'
- SubstitutionB. Aaronson· A. ZendejasUnited States change: A. Zendejas.77'
- SubstitutionJ. Scally· A. FreemanUnited States change: A. Freeman.77'
- 84'SubstitutionZ. Celik· C. SoyuncuTurkey change: C. Soyuncu.
- 84'SubstitutionK. Yildiz· C. UzunTurkey change: C. Uzun.
- SubstitutionW. McKennie· M. TillmanUnited States change: M. Tillman.86'
- 88'SubstitutionO. Kokcu· K. AyhanTurkey change: K. Ayhan.
- 90'+2SubstitutionO. Aydin· M. MuldurTurkey change: M. Muldur.
- 90'+2SubstitutionB. Yilmaz· I. KahveciTurkey change: I. Kahveci.
- 90'+8GoalK. AyhanK. Ayhan scores for Turkey.
Player involvement
United States
Turkey
Pre-match forecast
goals
De gepubliceerde kans voor deze wedstrijd staat vast bij de opstellingsbevestiging (≈1 uur voor de aftrap) en wordt daarna niet meer bijgewerkt. Dat is het getal waarop de terugblik na afloop afrekent. De live-winkans in de Live-sectie is een aparte, vertraagde, beschrijvende schatting; die vervangt de gepubliceerde voorspelling niet.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.4%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–08.9%
- 0–08.3%
- 1–28.2%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- United States win41.3%
- Draw27.4%
- Turkey win· realised31.3%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.