Group D · Matchday 3
← Previsão pré-jogoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- United States win30.8%
- Draw25.8%
- Turkey win43.5%
Analysis
The model gives Turkey a moderate advantage at 43.5% versus 30.8% for United States (draw 25.8%). A 181-point Elo gap gives Turkey a measurable advantage, though the gap is narrow enough that a single result could close it. A Group D fixture with advance probabilities of 73.7% for United States and 76.7% for Turkey.
Tactical matchup
United States (balanced) meet Turkey (pragmatic) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Turkey press significantly higher (PPDA 23.5) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic. Turkey carry a notably high set-piece xG share (20%) — dead-ball situations could be a differentiator.
Key battlegrounds
Turkey adapt shape to the opponent — tactical flexibility gives them options but demands quick reads. The individual battle features Folarin Balogun (P(scores) 12.3%) against Hakan Çalhanoğlu (6.7%) — their impact could prove decisive. United States play a more direct game while Turkey build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Turkey face a 11,463km journey to the venue versus United States's 2,817km — acclimatisation and fatigue could factor into the second half. Injury watch: United States's Christian Pulisic and Turkey's Arda Güler are both recovering — squad availability is a factor for both sides.
Match storyline
For Tim Ream, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for United States or Turkey.
- Stage:
- Group D · Matchday 3
Both sides face potential attacking absences, with the full breakdown available to Pass holders.
Calibração pós-jogo é gratuita. Quando este jogo terminar, a retrospectiva de previsão vs resultado — probabilidade pré-jogo vs resultado realizado, Brier score, log loss e xG final vs previsto — será publicada na página de retrospectiva, aberta para todos.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how United States v Turkey plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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