Group D · Matchday 3

Full-timeFT
United States
2:3
Turkey

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Live descriptive stats

United StatesTurkey
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
United States1.280.00−1.28
Turkey1.300.00−1.30

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
18
9
Shots on target
7
3
Possession (%)
53%
47%
Corners
9
2
Fouls
13
13
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Neither side has a rigid tactical identity. Both adapt to the opponent, so the first 15 minutes will reveal who imposes their plan first. Turkey's aggressive press (PPDA 23.5) against United States's deeper build-up (PPDA 27.7) creates a clear territory question: can Turkey force errors high up, or will United States play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Turkey adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. Folarin Balogun carries the marginally higher scoring probability (9.9% vs 6.8%).

Off the pitch

Turkey travel 11,463km, 4x United States's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Tim Ream. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for United States or Turkey.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group D · Matchday 3
Date:
25 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

United States

United States: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtChristian Pulisic, the first-choice forward, is recovering from Calf injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.

Turkey

Turkey come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Availability runs in Turkey's favour here: United States are managing a fitness concern over Christian Pulisic, while Turkey's projected XI looks intact.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

En vivoEstadísticas descriptivas y la probabilidad de victoria en vivo (con retraso) · se actualiza cada ~30 segundos

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
United States (above the line)Turkey (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 3' · A. TrustyGoal, 10' · A. GulerGoal, 31' · B. YilmazGoal, 49' · S. BerhalterGoal, 90' · K. Ayhan

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, United States minus Turkey: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

United StatesTurkey
  • GoalA. Trusty· S. BerhalterA. Trusty scores for United States.3'
  • 10'GoalA. Guler· B. YilmazA. Guler scores for Turkey.
  • Yellow cardS. Berhalter· RoughingS. Berhalter is booked — Roughing.19'
  • 31'GoalB. Yilmaz· O. KokcuB. Yilmaz scores for Turkey.
  • GoalS. BerhalterS. Berhalter scores for United States.49'
  • SubstitutionT. Weah· C. PulisicUnited States change: C. Pulisic.58'
  • SubstitutionG. Reyna· S. DestUnited States change: S. Dest.76'
  • SubstitutionB. Aaronson· A. ZendejasUnited States change: A. Zendejas.77'
  • SubstitutionJ. Scally· A. FreemanUnited States change: A. Freeman.77'
  • 84'SubstitutionZ. Celik· C. SoyuncuTurkey change: C. Soyuncu.
  • 84'SubstitutionK. Yildiz· C. UzunTurkey change: C. Uzun.
  • SubstitutionW. McKennie· M. TillmanUnited States change: M. Tillman.86'
  • 88'SubstitutionO. Kokcu· K. AyhanTurkey change: K. Ayhan.
  • 90'+2SubstitutionO. Aydin· M. MuldurTurkey change: M. Muldur.
  • 90'+2SubstitutionB. Yilmaz· I. KahveciTurkey change: I. Kahveci.
  • 90'+8GoalK. AyhanK. Ayhan scores for Turkey.

Player involvement

United States

AS. Berhalter3' Assist · 19' Yellow card · 49' Goal
A. Trusty3' Goal

Turkey

AB. Yilmaz10' Assist · 31' Goal · 90'+2 On
A. Guler10' Goal
K. Ayhan88' Off · 90'+8 Goal
AO. Kokcu31' Assist · 88' On
Modelo previo al partidoCongelado antes del saque inicial

Pre-match forecast

United States win
32.5%
Draw
24.4%
Turkey win
43.1%
United States
1.28
expected
goals
Turkey
1.30

La probabilidad publicada para este partido queda fijada al confirmarse las alineaciones (≈1 hora antes del inicio) y no se actualiza después. Es el número al que el repaso posterior pide cuentas. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo de la sección Live es una estimación separada, con retraso y descriptiva; no sustituye al pronóstico publicado.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–1
    13.4%
  • 0–1
    9.1%
  • 1–0
    8.9%
  • 0–0
    8.3%
  • 1–2
    8.2%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

2 – 3
Turkey win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • United States win
    41.3%
  • Draw
    27.4%
  • Turkey win· realised
    31.3%
Brier score
0.718
Log loss
1.162
xG (final / predicted)
2.00 / 1.27 · United States
3.00 / 1.27 · Turkey
P(realised outcome)
31.3%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Resumen completo de pronóstico frente a resultado →

Cómo funciona la probabilidad en vivo. El pronóstico previo publicado se congela en el cierre de alineaciones (T-1h) y no cambia tras el inicio; el repaso posterior evalúa ese número congelado frente al resultado. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo que se muestra durante el juego es el mismo modelo, releído según el marcador y el tiempo restante. Se actualiza más o menos una vez por minuto, siempre con retraso, y es una cifra descriptiva de investigación, no un producto de juego ni un precio de ningún tipo. Consulta /docs/methodology/ para el marco completo.