Group I · Matchday 3
합산 FIFA 랭킹 기준 그날 가장 강력한 대진은 누구나 무료입니다. 전체 예측과 전체 라이브 트래커를 제공합니다. 다른 모든 경기는 Standard Pass가 필요합니다. Pass 보기
Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Iraq's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Senegal's direct transition game. The risk for Iraq: getting caught between attacking and defending.
What decides it
Senegal will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Bamba Dieng's 6.7% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Iraq's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Idrissa Gueye. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Senegal or Iraq.
- Stage:
- Group I · Matchday 3
- Date:
- 26 Jun
Senegal and Iraq both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Senegal minus Iraq: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalH. Diarra· A. SeckH. Diarra scores for Senegal.4'
- 13'Red cardR. Sulaka· HoldingR. Sulaka is sent off — Holding.
- 16'SubstitutionA. Qasem· M. YounisIraq change: M. Younis.
- Yellow cardA. Seck· FoulA. Seck is booked — Foul.18'
- 46'SubstitutionA. Basil· J. HassanIraq change: J. Hassan.
- GoalI. Sarr· L. CamaraI. Sarr scores for Senegal.56'
- SubstitutionH. Diarra· P. GueyeSenegal change: P. Gueye.57'
- SubstitutionI. Mbaye· I. NdiayeSenegal change: I. Ndiaye.57'
- SubstitutionL. Camara· N. JacksonSenegal change: N. Jackson.57'
- 58'SubstitutionA. Jasim· A. MaknziIraq change: A. Maknzi.
- 58'SubstitutionA. Al Hamadi· A. YousifIraq change: A. Yousif.
- SubstitutionA. Seck· P. CissSenegal change: P. Ciss.58'
- GoalP. Gueye· I. SarrP. Gueye scores for Senegal.59'
- 67'SubstitutionZ. Iqbal· K. YakobIraq change: K. Yakob.
- GoalP. Gueye· I. NdiayeP. Gueye scores for Senegal.71'
- 75'Yellow cardA. Al AmmariA. Al Ammari is booked.
- SubstitutionI. Sarr· A. DiaoSenegal change: A. Diao.81'
- Yellow cardP. Gueye· FoulP. Gueye is booked — Foul.81'
- GoalI. Ndiaye· P. GueyeI. Ndiaye scores for Senegal.82'
- 90'Yellow cardM. Doski· FoulM. Doski is booked — Foul.
Player involvement
Senegal
Iraq
Pre-match forecast
goals
이 경기의 공개 확률은 라인업 확정 시점(킥오프 약 1시간 전)에 고정되며 이후 갱신되지 않습니다. 경기 후 리뷰가 책임을 묻는 수치가 바로 이것입니다. 라이브 섹션의 라이브 승리 확률은 별도의 지연 제공 설명적 추정치로, 공개된 예측을 대체하지 않습니다.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–018.7%
- 2–015.2%
- 0–013.0%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–18.0%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.