Group I · Matchday 3
← 試合前の予測Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Senegal win59.8%
- Draw27.3%
- Iraq win13.0%
Analysis
The model rates Senegal as clear favourites at 59.8%, with Iraq at 13.0% and the draw at 27.3%. The Elo gap is substantial at 271 points in Senegal's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group I fixture with advance probabilities of 77.2% for Senegal and 12.9% for Iraq.
Tactical matchup
Senegal (transition heavy) meet Iraq (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest.
Key battlegrounds
Senegal will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Bamba Dieng (P(scores) 6.8%) against Aymen Hussein (2.8%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.
Match storyline
At 13.0%, an Iraq result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Senegal or Iraq.
- Stage:
- Group I · Matchday 3
Both sides enter this fixture with some fitness concerns among their squad members. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
試合後のキャリブレーションは無料です。 この試合の終了後、予測 vs 結果の振り返りを公開します。試合前の確率と実際の結果、Brier score、log loss、実際の xG と予測値を 振り返りページですべての方に無料公開。
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how Senegal v Iraq plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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