Group I · Matchday 3
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Iraq's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Senegal's direct transition game. The risk for Iraq: getting caught between attacking and defending.
What decides it
Senegal will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Bamba Dieng's 6.7% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Iraq's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Idrissa Gueye. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Senegal or Iraq.
- Stage:
- Group I · Matchday 3
- Date:
- 26 Jun
Senegal and Iraq both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Senegal minus Iraq: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalH. Diarra· A. SeckH. Diarra scores for Senegal.4'
- 13'Red cardR. Sulaka· HoldingR. Sulaka is sent off — Holding.
- 16'SubstitutionA. Qasem· M. YounisIraq change: M. Younis.
- Yellow cardA. Seck· FoulA. Seck is booked — Foul.18'
- 46'SubstitutionA. Basil· J. HassanIraq change: J. Hassan.
- GoalI. Sarr· L. CamaraI. Sarr scores for Senegal.56'
- SubstitutionH. Diarra· P. GueyeSenegal change: P. Gueye.57'
- SubstitutionI. Mbaye· I. NdiayeSenegal change: I. Ndiaye.57'
- SubstitutionL. Camara· N. JacksonSenegal change: N. Jackson.57'
- 58'SubstitutionA. Jasim· A. MaknziIraq change: A. Maknzi.
- 58'SubstitutionA. Al Hamadi· A. YousifIraq change: A. Yousif.
- SubstitutionA. Seck· P. CissSenegal change: P. Ciss.58'
- GoalP. Gueye· I. SarrP. Gueye scores for Senegal.59'
- 67'SubstitutionZ. Iqbal· K. YakobIraq change: K. Yakob.
- GoalP. Gueye· I. NdiayeP. Gueye scores for Senegal.71'
- 75'Yellow cardA. Al AmmariA. Al Ammari is booked.
- SubstitutionI. Sarr· A. DiaoSenegal change: A. Diao.81'
- Yellow cardP. Gueye· FoulP. Gueye is booked — Foul.81'
- GoalI. Ndiaye· P. GueyeI. Ndiaye scores for Senegal.82'
- 90'Yellow cardM. Doski· FoulM. Doski is booked — Foul.
Player involvement
Senegal
Iraq
Pre-match forecast
goals
De gepubliceerde kans voor deze wedstrijd staat vast bij de opstellingsbevestiging (≈1 uur voor de aftrap) en wordt daarna niet meer bijgewerkt. Dat is het getal waarop de terugblik na afloop afrekent. De live-winkans in de Live-sectie is een aparte, vertraagde, beschrijvende schatting; die vervangt de gepubliceerde voorspelling niet.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–018.7%
- 2–015.2%
- 0–013.0%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–18.0%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.