Group D · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
United States
2:0
Australia

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Live descriptive stats

United StatesAustralia
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
United States0.971.30+0.33
Australia1.020.44−0.58

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
10
5
Shots on target
2
2
Possession (%)
62%
38%
Corners
7
4
Fouls
12
16
Yellow cards
3
4
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

United States's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Australia's direct transition game. The risk for United States: getting caught between attacking and defending. United States's aggressive press (PPDA 27.7) against Australia's deeper build-up (PPDA 37.0) creates a clear territory question: can United States force errors high up, or will Australia play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Australia will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Folarin Balogun's 11.7% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Australia's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Australia travel 13,065km, 5x United States's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Tim Ream. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for United States or Australia.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group D · Matchday 2
Date:
19 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
  2. 2.Rest differential: United States have had 7 days since their previous match versus 6 for Australia. Rest and recovery are not model inputs.
Availability

United States

United States: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtChristian Pulisic, the first-choice forward, is recovering from Calf injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.

Australia

Australia come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Availability runs in Australia's favour here: United States are managing a fitness concern over Christian Pulisic, while Australia's projected XI looks intact.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

실시간설명적 스탯과 지연 제공 라이브 승리 확률 · 약 30초마다 갱신

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
United States (above the line)Australia (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 11' · C. BurgessGoal, 43' · A. Freeman

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, United States minus Australia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

United StatesAustralia
  • Own goalC. BurgessC. Burgess turns it into their own net — credited to Australia.11'
  • 16'Yellow cardJ. Bos· RoughingJ. Bos is booked — Roughing.
  • 32'Yellow cardA. Circati· TrippingA. Circati is booked — Tripping.
  • GoalA. FreemanA. Freeman scores for United States.43'
  • 46'SubstitutionC. Burgess· J. GeriaAustralia change: J. Geria.
  • 46'SubstitutionN. Velupillay· C. MetcalfeAustralia change: C. Metcalfe.
  • 46'SubstitutionM. Toure· N. IrankundaAustralia change: N. Irankunda.
  • Yellow cardA. Robinson· TrippingA. Robinson is booked — Tripping.56'
  • 61'SubstitutionM. Leckie· C. VolpatoAustralia change: C. Volpato.
  • SubstitutionR. Pepi· S. BerhalterUnited States change: S. Berhalter.74'
  • 78'SubstitutionP. Okon-Engstler· J. IrvineAustralia change: J. Irvine.
  • SubstitutionS. Dest· J. ScallyUnited States change: J. Scally.80'
  • SubstitutionA. Robinson· A. TrustyUnited States change: A. Trusty.80'
  • 88'Yellow cardH. Souttar· Unsportsmanlike conductH. Souttar is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.
  • Yellow cardF. Balogun· Unsportsmanlike conductF. Balogun is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.89'
  • 89'Yellow cardJ. Italiano· Unsportsmanlike conductJ. Italiano is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.
  • Yellow cardC. Richards· ImpedingC. Richards is booked — Impeding.90'+3
  • SubstitutionF. Balogun· H. WrightUnited States change: H. Wright.90'+6
  • SubstitutionW. McKennie· G. ReynaUnited States change: G. Reyna.90'+6

Player involvement

United States

A. Freeman43' Goal
A. Robinson56' Yellow card · 80' On
F. Balogun89' Yellow card · 90'+6 On
C. Richards90'+3 Yellow card

Australia

J. Bos16' Yellow card
A. Circati32' Yellow card
H. Souttar88' Yellow card
J. Italiano89' Yellow card
경기 전 모델킥오프 전 고정

Pre-match forecast

United States win
31.9%
Draw
29.6%
Australia win
38.5%
United States
0.97
expected
goals
Australia
1.02

이 경기의 공개 확률은 라인업 확정 시점(킥오프 약 1시간 전)에 고정되며 이후 갱신되지 않습니다. 경기 후 리뷰가 책임을 묻는 수치가 바로 이것입니다. 라이브 섹션의 라이브 승리 확률은 별도의 지연 제공 설명적 추정치로, 공개된 예측을 대체하지 않습니다.

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–0
    14.5%
  • 1–1
    14.3%
  • 0–1
    13.1%
  • 1–0
    12.5%
  • 0–2
    7.1%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

라이브 확률의 작동 방식. 공개된 경기 전 예측은 라인업 확정(T-1h) 시점에 동결되어 킥오프 이후 변하지 않습니다. 경기 후 리뷰는 이 동결된 수치를 결과와 대조합니다. 경기 중 표시되는 라이브 승리 확률은 같은 모델을 현재 스코어와 남은 시간에 맞춰 다시 읽은 것입니다. 약 1분마다 갱신되고 항상 지연되며, 설명적 리서치 수치일 뿐 사행성 상품도, 어떤 형태의 가격도 아닙니다. 전체 프레임은 /docs/methodology/ 에서 확인하세요.