Group D · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
United States
2:0
Australia

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Live descriptive stats

United StatesAustralia
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
United States0.971.30+0.33
Australia1.020.44−0.58

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
10
5
Shots on target
2
2
Possession (%)
62%
38%
Corners
7
4
Fouls
12
16
Yellow cards
3
4
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

United States's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Australia's direct transition game. The risk for United States: getting caught between attacking and defending. United States's aggressive press (PPDA 27.7) against Australia's deeper build-up (PPDA 37.0) creates a clear territory question: can United States force errors high up, or will Australia play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Australia will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Folarin Balogun's 11.7% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Australia's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Australia travel 13,065km, 5x United States's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Tim Ream. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for United States or Australia.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group D · Matchday 2
Date:
19 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
  2. 2.Rest differential: United States have had 7 days since their previous match versus 6 for Australia. Rest and recovery are not model inputs.
Availability

United States

United States: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtChristian Pulisic, the first-choice forward, is recovering from Calf injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.

Australia

Australia come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Availability runs in Australia's favour here: United States are managing a fitness concern over Christian Pulisic, while Australia's projected XI looks intact.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

ライブ記述的スタッツと遅延付きライブ勝利確率 · 約30秒ごとに更新

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
United States (above the line)Australia (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 11' · C. BurgessGoal, 43' · A. Freeman

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, United States minus Australia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

United StatesAustralia
  • Own goalC. BurgessC. Burgess turns it into their own net — credited to Australia.11'
  • 16'Yellow cardJ. Bos· RoughingJ. Bos is booked — Roughing.
  • 32'Yellow cardA. Circati· TrippingA. Circati is booked — Tripping.
  • GoalA. FreemanA. Freeman scores for United States.43'
  • 46'SubstitutionC. Burgess· J. GeriaAustralia change: J. Geria.
  • 46'SubstitutionN. Velupillay· C. MetcalfeAustralia change: C. Metcalfe.
  • 46'SubstitutionM. Toure· N. IrankundaAustralia change: N. Irankunda.
  • Yellow cardA. Robinson· TrippingA. Robinson is booked — Tripping.56'
  • 61'SubstitutionM. Leckie· C. VolpatoAustralia change: C. Volpato.
  • SubstitutionR. Pepi· S. BerhalterUnited States change: S. Berhalter.74'
  • 78'SubstitutionP. Okon-Engstler· J. IrvineAustralia change: J. Irvine.
  • SubstitutionS. Dest· J. ScallyUnited States change: J. Scally.80'
  • SubstitutionA. Robinson· A. TrustyUnited States change: A. Trusty.80'
  • 88'Yellow cardH. Souttar· Unsportsmanlike conductH. Souttar is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.
  • Yellow cardF. Balogun· Unsportsmanlike conductF. Balogun is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.89'
  • 89'Yellow cardJ. Italiano· Unsportsmanlike conductJ. Italiano is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.
  • Yellow cardC. Richards· ImpedingC. Richards is booked — Impeding.90'+3
  • SubstitutionF. Balogun· H. WrightUnited States change: H. Wright.90'+6
  • SubstitutionW. McKennie· G. ReynaUnited States change: G. Reyna.90'+6

Player involvement

United States

A. Freeman43' Goal
A. Robinson56' Yellow card · 80' On
F. Balogun89' Yellow card · 90'+6 On
C. Richards90'+3 Yellow card

Australia

J. Bos16' Yellow card
A. Circati32' Yellow card
H. Souttar88' Yellow card
J. Italiano89' Yellow card
試合前モデルキックオフ前に固定

Pre-match forecast

United States win
31.9%
Draw
29.6%
Australia win
38.5%
United States
0.97
expected
goals
Australia
1.02

この試合の公開確率はスタメン確定時（キックオフ約1時間前）に固定され、その後は更新されません。試合後の振り返りが照合するのはこの数値です。ライブセクションのライブ勝利確率は別枠の遅延付き・記述的な推定値で、公開済みの予測に取って代わるものではありません。

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–0
    14.5%
  • 1–1
    14.3%
  • 0–1
    13.1%
  • 1–0
    12.5%
  • 0–2
    7.1%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

ライブ確率の仕組み。 公開済みの試合前予測はスタメン確定（T-1h）時点で凍結され、キックオフ後は変わりません。試合後の振り返りでは、この凍結された数値を結果と照合します。試合中に表示されるライブ勝利確率は、同じモデルを現在のスコアと残り時間に合わせて読み直したものです。約1分ごとに更新され、常に遅延があり、記述的なリサーチ数値であって、遊技商品でも何らかの価格でもありません。全体の枠組みは /docs/methodology/ を参照してください。