Group D · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
United States's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Australia's direct transition game. The risk for United States: getting caught between attacking and defending. United States's aggressive press (PPDA 27.7) against Australia's deeper build-up (PPDA 37.0) creates a clear territory question: can United States force errors high up, or will Australia play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Australia will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Folarin Balogun's 11.7% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Australia's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
Australia travel 13,065km, 5x United States's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Tim Ream. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for United States or Australia.
- Stage:
- Group D · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 19 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
- 2.Rest differential: United States have had 7 days since their previous match versus 6 for Australia. Rest and recovery are not model inputs.
United States
United States: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.
- DoubtChristian Pulisic, the first-choice forward, is recovering from Calf injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
Australia
Australia come in at close to full strength.
Availability runs in Australia's favour here: United States are managing a fitness concern over Christian Pulisic, while Australia's projected XI looks intact.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, United States minus Australia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- Own goalC. BurgessC. Burgess turns it into their own net — credited to Australia.11'
- 16'Yellow cardJ. Bos· RoughingJ. Bos is booked — Roughing.
- 32'Yellow cardA. Circati· TrippingA. Circati is booked — Tripping.
- GoalA. FreemanA. Freeman scores for United States.43'
- 46'SubstitutionC. Burgess· J. GeriaAustralia change: J. Geria.
- 46'SubstitutionN. Velupillay· C. MetcalfeAustralia change: C. Metcalfe.
- 46'SubstitutionM. Toure· N. IrankundaAustralia change: N. Irankunda.
- Yellow cardA. Robinson· TrippingA. Robinson is booked — Tripping.56'
- 61'SubstitutionM. Leckie· C. VolpatoAustralia change: C. Volpato.
- SubstitutionR. Pepi· S. BerhalterUnited States change: S. Berhalter.74'
- 78'SubstitutionP. Okon-Engstler· J. IrvineAustralia change: J. Irvine.
- SubstitutionS. Dest· J. ScallyUnited States change: J. Scally.80'
- SubstitutionA. Robinson· A. TrustyUnited States change: A. Trusty.80'
- 88'Yellow cardH. Souttar· Unsportsmanlike conductH. Souttar is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.
- Yellow cardF. Balogun· Unsportsmanlike conductF. Balogun is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.89'
- 89'Yellow cardJ. Italiano· Unsportsmanlike conductJ. Italiano is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.
- Yellow cardC. Richards· ImpedingC. Richards is booked — Impeding.90'+3
- SubstitutionF. Balogun· H. WrightUnited States change: H. Wright.90'+6
- SubstitutionW. McKennie· G. ReynaUnited States change: G. Reyna.90'+6
Player involvement
United States
Australia
Pre-match forecast
goals
De gepubliceerde kans voor deze wedstrijd staat vast bij de opstellingsbevestiging (≈1 uur voor de aftrap) en wordt daarna niet meer bijgewerkt. Dat is het getal waarop de terugblik na afloop afrekent. De live-winkans in de Live-sectie is een aparte, vertraagde, beschrijvende schatting; die vervangt de gepubliceerde voorspelling niet.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–014.5%
- 1–114.3%
- 0–113.1%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–27.1%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.