Group K · Matchday 1
← 경기 전 예측Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Portugal win70.3%
- Draw22.0%
- DR Congo win7.6%
Analysis
The model rates Portugal as clear favourites at 70.3%, with DR Congo at 7.6% and the draw at 22.0%. The Elo gap is substantial at 329 points in Portugal's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. In Group K, Portugal are expected to advance (97.1%) while DR Congo face a tighter path (27.6%) — this result could be decisive for DR Congo's campaign.
Tactical matchup
Portugal's possession dominant game will be tested by DR Congo's counter attacker shape — patience in possession against disciplined resistance. Portugal typically dominate possession (59%) compared to DR Congo's 46% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Portugal need to control tempo through midfield — their possession-based approach depends on dictating rhythm. DR Congo will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Cristiano Ronaldo (P(scores) 9.8%) against Yoane Wissa (10.6%) — their impact could prove decisive. DR Congo play a more direct game while Portugal build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.
Match storyline
At 7.6%, a DR Congo result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Portugal or DR Congo.
- Stage:
- Group K · Matchday 1
One side enters this fixture with a number of key fitness concerns, while their opponents boast a clean bill of health; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
경기 후 보정은 무료입니다. 이 경기가 끝나면 예측 대 결과 회고(경기 전 확률 대 실제 결과, Brier score, log loss, 최종 xG 대 예측)가 회고 페이지에 게시되며, 누구나 볼 수 있습니다.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Portugal v DR Congo plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
24h self-service refund·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.