Group K · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Portugal want the ball; DR Congo want to deny space. If DR Congo's counter attacker holds through 60 minutes, Portugal's patience in the final third gets tested. Portugal will expect to hold 59% possession. DR Congo need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Portugal's possession game (59% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. DR Congo will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. The scoring threat is evenly split: Cristiano Ronaldo (9.5%) and Yoane Wissa (10.6%).
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
The model gives DR Congo just 10.0% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Portugal or DR Congo.
- Stage:
- Group K · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 17 Jun
Portugal
Portugal come in at close to full strength.
DR Congo
DR Congo come in at close to full strength.
Portugal and DR Congo both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Portugal minus DR Congo: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalJ. Neves· P. NetoJ. Neves scores for Portugal.6'
- Yellow cardB. Silva· TrippingB. Silva is booked — Tripping.13'
- 32'Yellow cardC. Mbemba· RoughingC. Mbemba is booked — Roughing.
- 45'+5GoalY. Wissa· A. MasuakuY. Wissa scores for DR Congo.
- SubstitutionB. Silva· F. ConceicaoPortugal change: F. Conceicao.46'
- 57'SubstitutionN. Mukau· N. SadikiDR Congo change: N. Sadiki.
- SubstitutionP. Neto· R. LeaoPortugal change: R. Leao.71'
- SubstitutionN. Mendes· N. SemedoPortugal change: N. Semedo.72'
- 74'SubstitutionE. Kayembe· C. PickelDR Congo change: C. Pickel.
- 74'SubstitutionA. Masuaku· J. KayembeDR Congo change: J. Kayembe.
- SubstitutionVitinha· G. RamosPortugal change: G. Ramos.83'
- 85'SubstitutionA. Wan-Bissaka· G. KaluluDR Congo change: G. Kalulu.
- 85'SubstitutionC. Bakambu· S. BanzaDR Congo change: S. Banza.
- Yellow cardN. Semedo· HoldingN. Semedo is booked — Holding.88'
- Yellow cardT. Araujo· RoughingT. Araujo is booked — Roughing.90'+2
Player involvement
Portugal
DR Congo
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–018.0%
- 2–016.7%
- 0–010.8%
- 3–010.1%
- 1–19.3%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.