Group K · Matchday 1
← 試合前の予測Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Portugal win70.3%
- Draw22.0%
- DR Congo win7.6%
Analysis
The model rates Portugal as clear favourites at 70.3%, with DR Congo at 7.6% and the draw at 22.0%. The Elo gap is substantial at 329 points in Portugal's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. In Group K, Portugal are expected to advance (97.1%) while DR Congo face a tighter path (27.6%) — this result could be decisive for DR Congo's campaign.
Tactical matchup
Portugal's possession dominant game will be tested by DR Congo's counter attacker shape — patience in possession against disciplined resistance. Portugal typically dominate possession (59%) compared to DR Congo's 46% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Portugal need to control tempo through midfield — their possession-based approach depends on dictating rhythm. DR Congo will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Cristiano Ronaldo (P(scores) 9.8%) against Yoane Wissa (10.6%) — their impact could prove decisive. DR Congo play a more direct game while Portugal build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.
Match storyline
At 7.6%, a DR Congo result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Portugal or DR Congo.
- Stage:
- Group K · Matchday 1
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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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