Group J · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Austria press high and force the tempo. Jordan's balanced setup needs to absorb that pressure early and find the right moments to play forward. Austria will expect to hold 53% possession. Jordan need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Austria press high (PPDA 17.0). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Marcel Sabitzer carries the marginally higher scoring probability (6.5% vs 3.2%).
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Marko Arnautović. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
- Stage:
- Group J · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 16 Jun
Austria and Jordan both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Austria minus Jordan: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalR. Schmid· X. SchlagerR. Schmid scores for Austria.21'
- SubstitutionS. Kalajdzic· M. ArnautovicAustria change: M. Arnautovic.46'
- 50'GoalA. Olwan· N. Al RawabdehA. Olwan scores for Jordan.
- SubstitutionX. Schlager· C. ChukwuemekaAustria change: C. Chukwuemeka.59'
- SubstitutionD. Alaba· K. DansoAustria change: K. Danso.59'
- SubstitutionP. Mwene· P. WannerAustria change: P. Wanner.59'
- VAR reviewM. ArnautovicVAR review under way.67'
- 72'SubstitutionM. Abualnadi· S. ObaidJordan change: S. Obaid.
- Own goalY. Al ArabY. Al Arab turns it into their own net — credited to Jordan.76'
- Yellow cardM. Sabitzer· Unsportsmanlike conductM. Sabitzer is booked — Unsportsmanlike conduct.77'
- 81'SubstitutionA. Nasib· S. Al RosanJordan change: S. Al Rosan.
- 81'SubstitutionE. Haddad· M. Al MardiJordan change: M. Al Mardi.
- SubstitutionR. Schmid· P. WimmerAustria change: P. Wimmer.83'
- 88'SubstitutionM. Tamari· M. Al DaoudJordan change: M. Al Daoud.
- 89'SubstitutionO. Al Fakhouri· A. AzaizehJordan change: A. Azaizeh.
- Penalty scoredM. ArnautovicM. Arnautovic converts from the spot for Austria.90'+12
Player involvement
Austria
Jordan
Pre-match forecast
goals
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Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.7%
- 2–013.7%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–08.7%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Austria win· realised54.7%
- Draw24.7%
- Jordan win20.6%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.