Group J · Matchday 1
← 試合前の予測Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Austria win54.7%
- Draw24.7%
- Jordan win20.6%
Analysis
The model gives Austria a moderate advantage at 54.7% versus 20.6% for Jordan (draw 24.7%). A 137-point Elo gap gives Austria a measurable advantage, though the gap is narrow enough that a single result could close it. A Group J fixture with advance probabilities of 78.9% for Austria and 21.5% for Jordan.
Tactical matchup
Austria (high press) meet Jordan (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Austria typically dominate possession (53%) compared to Jordan's 37% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Austria must sustain their pressing intensity to force turnovers in advanced positions. The individual battle features Marcel Sabitzer (P(scores) 6.7%) against Ahmad Ersan (3.2%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
Austria's Ralf Rangnick (4.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Jamal Sellami (2.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
For Marko Arnautović, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Austria or Jordan.
- Stage:
- Group J · Matchday 1
Jordan's squad faces some key availability concerns, while Austria appears to be at full strength, with the full breakdown available with a Pass.
試合後のキャリブレーションは無料です。 この試合の終了後、予測 vs 結果の振り返りを公開します。試合前の確率と実際の結果、Brier score、log loss、実際の xG と予測値を 振り返りページですべての方に無料公開。
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Austria v Jordan plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
24h self-service refund·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.