Group J · Matchday 1
← Vor-Spiel-PrognoseLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Austria win54.7%
- Draw24.7%
- Jordan win20.6%
Analysis
The model gives Austria a moderate advantage at 54.7% versus 20.6% for Jordan (draw 24.7%). A 137-point Elo gap gives Austria a measurable advantage, though the gap is narrow enough that a single result could close it. A Group J fixture with advance probabilities of 78.9% for Austria and 21.5% for Jordan.
Tactical matchup
Austria (high press) meet Jordan (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Austria typically dominate possession (53%) compared to Jordan's 37% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Austria must sustain their pressing intensity to force turnovers in advanced positions. The individual battle features Marcel Sabitzer (P(scores) 6.7%) against Ahmad Ersan (3.2%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
Austria's Ralf Rangnick (4.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Jamal Sellami (2.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
For Marko Arnautović, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Austria or Jordan.
- Stage:
- Group J · Matchday 1
Jordan's squad faces some key availability concerns, while Austria appears to be at full strength, with the full breakdown available with a Pass.
Die Kalibrierung nach Abpfiff ist kostenlos. Wenn dieses Spiel endet, wird die Zusammenfassung Prognose vs. Ergebnis veröffentlicht: Vor-Spiel-Wahrscheinlichkeit gegenüber dem tatsächlichen Ausgang, Brier score, Log Loss und finale xG vs. prognostizierte xG, auf der Zusammenfassungsseite, offen für alle.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Austria v Jordan plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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