Group G · Matchday 1
← 경기 전 예측Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Iran win57.2%
- Draw25.9%
- New Zealand win17.0%
Analysis
The model gives Iran a moderate advantage at 57.2% versus 17.0% for New Zealand (draw 25.9%). A 175-point Elo gap gives Iran a measurable advantage, though the gap is narrow enough that a single result could close it. A Group G fixture with advance probabilities of 83.2% for Iran and 20.9% for New Zealand.
Tactical matchup
Iran (transition heavy) meet New Zealand (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. New Zealand typically dominate possession (44%) compared to Iran's 33% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Iran will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Mehdi Taremi (P(scores) 3.2%) against Chris Wood (15.2%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.
Match storyline
For Ehsan Hajsafi, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Iran or New Zealand.
- Stage:
- Group G · Matchday 1
One side faces a couple of fitness concerns for this match, including a key attacker, while the other is at full strength. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
경기 후 보정은 무료입니다. 이 경기가 끝나면 예측 대 결과 회고(경기 전 확률 대 실제 결과, Brier score, log loss, 최종 xG 대 예측)가 회고 페이지에 게시되며, 누구나 볼 수 있습니다.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Iran v New Zealand plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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