Group G · Matchday 1
← Maç öncesi tahminLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Iran win57.2%
- Draw25.9%
- New Zealand win17.0%
Analysis
The model gives Iran a moderate advantage at 57.2% versus 17.0% for New Zealand (draw 25.9%). A 175-point Elo gap gives Iran a measurable advantage, though the gap is narrow enough that a single result could close it. A Group G fixture with advance probabilities of 83.2% for Iran and 20.9% for New Zealand.
Tactical matchup
Iran (transition heavy) meet New Zealand (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. New Zealand typically dominate possession (44%) compared to Iran's 33% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Iran will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Mehdi Taremi (P(scores) 3.2%) against Chris Wood (15.2%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.
Match storyline
For Ehsan Hajsafi, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Iran or New Zealand.
- Stage:
- Group G · Matchday 1
One side faces a couple of fitness concerns for this match, including a key attacker, while the other is at full strength. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Maç sonu kalibrasyonu ücretsizdir. Bu maç bittiğinde, tahmin ve sonuç özeti (maç öncesi olasılık ile gerçekleşen sonuç karşılaştırması, Brier score, log loss ve gerçekleşen xG ile tahmini xG) şu sayfada yayımlanır: özet sayfası, herkes için açık.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Iran v New Zealand plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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