Group G · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
New Zealand's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Iran's direct transition game. The risk for New Zealand: getting caught between attacking and defending. New Zealand will expect to hold 44% possession. Iran need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Iran will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Chris Wood's 14.4% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Iran's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Ehsan Hajsafi. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Iran or New Zealand.
- Stage:
- Group G · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 15 Jun
Iran
Iran come in at close to full strength.
New Zealand
New Zealand come in at close to full strength.
Iran and New Zealand both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Iran minus New Zealand: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 7'GoalE. Just· C. WoodE. Just scores for New Zealand.
- GoalR. RezaeianR. Rezaeian scores for Iran.32'
- SubstitutionA. Yousefi· M. GhaediIran change: M. Ghaedi.46'
- SubstitutionS. Moghanlou· A. AlipourIran change: A. Alipour.53'
- 54'GoalE. Just· C. WoodE. Just scores for New Zealand.
- GoalM. Mohebi· R. RezaeianM. Mohebi scores for Iran.64'
- SubstitutionS. Ghoddos· E. HajsafiIran change: E. Hajsafi.65'
- 68'SubstitutionL. Cacace· B. OldNew Zealand change: B. Old.
- 68'SubstitutionC. McCowatt· R. ThomasNew Zealand change: R. Thomas.
- 78'SubstitutionT. Payne· C. ElliotNew Zealand change: C. Elliot.
- SubstitutionM. Taremi· A. HosseinzadehIran change: A. Hosseinzadeh.80'
- Yellow cardE. Hajsafi· TrippingE. Hajsafi is booked — Tripping.89'
- 90'+2SubstitutionS. Singh· J. RandallNew Zealand change: J. Randall.
- 90'+2SubstitutionM. Stamenic· T. BindonNew Zealand change: T. Bindon.
Player involvement
Iran
New Zealand
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–019.6%
- 2–015.5%
- 0–013.8%
- 1–110.6%
- 3–07.9%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Iran win57.2%
- Draw· realised25.9%
- New Zealand win17.0%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.