Cape Verde
Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0CAF·H조·FIFA #68
High-pressing side.
- 라이벌
- Spain (#1)
- 핵심
- Nuno da Costa (FW)
토너먼트 전망
Analysis
Cape Verde carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (45th of 48). Drawn in Group H alongside Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, they are projected at 25.7% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Cape Verde under Bubista play a high press game with 53% possession. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 17.2) and move the ball forward quickly at 5.7 passes per attack. They generate a high volume of shots (13.2 per 90).
Path to success
In Group H alongside Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde are projected at 25.7% to advance from the group stage. A competitive group-stage showing — taking points off higher-ranked opponents — would mark a successful campaign. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Cape Verde need their high press to force turnovers in dangerous areas — if opponents can play through the press, the space left behind is vulnerable. Physical conditioning and squad rotation will be critical to sustain pressing intensity across a long tournament.
Controversial take
The model and FIFA rankings tell different stories for Cape Verde. Model rates them #47 by tournament-winner probability — 21 places higher than FIFA #68.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
High press · style profile from 5 recent matches
What to watch: a slower tempo, holding and recycling possession.
Percentiles position Cape Verde against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group H finish · Cape Verde
Monte Carlo, 50,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 0.8%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 8.5%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 38.8%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 51.9%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Cape Verde
, 50,000 sims- 27.7%AdvAdvance from group
- 5.1%R16Round of 16
- 0.9%QFQuarter-final
- 0.1%SFSemi-final
- <0.1%FFinal
- 0.0%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Cape Verde
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsMost frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.
R16
Round of 16
SF
Semi-final
F
Final
스쿼드
Predicted squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 1/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 1.000
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 100%
- 1 of 1 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Villarreal1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Logan CostaCentre-backLikely cover: Diney · 0.36Al Bataeh0.41gap to repl.
- Kevin PinaDefensive midfieldLikely cover: Laros Duarte · 0.28Puskás Akadémia0.25gap to repl.
- Jamiro MonteiroCentral midfieldLikely cover: Yannick Semedo · 0.13Farense0.24gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
조별 리그 일정
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 15, 2026 | Spain | Atlanta, United States |
| 2 | Jun 21, 2026 | Uruguay | Miami Gardens, United States |
| 3 | Jun 26, 2026 | Saudi Arabia | Houston, United States |
상대 전적
주요 이야기
Storylines
Updated 14 days agoModel rates them #47 by tournament-winner probability — 21 places higher than FIFA #68.
40 at kickoff with 85 caps — last World Cup for the #1.
Only 3 of 25 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.
Converted only 3 of 5 career penalties (60%) — a wasteful record from the spot in knockouts.
폼 및 과거 기록
Statistical profile
High PressAttack
Defence
GK: Bruno Varela
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 5 matches (AFCON2023). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10Cape Verde trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1549.0 to 1549.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.0% to <0.1% (0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | NFinland | 1–1 | D | FIFA Series |
| 2026-03-27 | NChile | 2–4 | L | FIFA Series |
| 2025-11-17 | NEgypt | 1–1 | D | Al Ain International Cup |
| 2025-11-13 | NIran | 0–0 | D | Al Ain International Cup |
| 2025-10-13 | HEswatini | 3–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-08 | ALibya | 3–3 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-09 | HCameroon | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-04 | AMauritius | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-08 | AGeorgia | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-06-03 | AMalaysia | 3–0 | W | Friendly |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
| Spain | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
| Uruguay | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| African Cup of Nations | 2024 | Quarter-finals | 3-2-0 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Burkina Faso · Afcon 2010
Outcome not classified
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1582) and group draw.
Togo · Afcon 2013
Exited at the quarter-final
Sudan · Afcon 2008
Exited at the group stage