公開の場で検証

1 Jul 2026

以下のすべての確率はキックオフ前に公開され、確定されました。このページでは、それぞれを実際の結果と照らし合わせて採点します。

3試合中3試合を採点済み
0
的中
高い確信、正しい結果
1
鋭い読み
起こった結果に最も高い確率を与えた
2
想定内
結果は予想の範囲内だった
0
予想外
モデルはこの結果を予測できなかった

日別平均： Within expectations

  • MexicovsEcuador
    採点済み28 Junに確定
    2 – 0
    • Mexico · 実現31.8%
    • 引き分け33.9%
    • Ecuador34.3%
    判定
    Within expectations

    Mexico 2–0 Ecuador was an outcome the model rated at 31.8% (31.8% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.698, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Mexico
    8G. MoraSTScored the opening goal for Mexico, setting the tone for the match.
    8Uriel AntunaRWScored a goal and was an active threat in attack, including from set pieces.
    8Raúl JiménezSTScored a goal with a composed finish, extending Mexico's lead.
    Ecuador
    8Hernán GalíndezGKMade several excellent and spectacular saves, preventing a heavier defeat for Ecuador.
    7Yeboah ZamoraSTShowed good individual skill, creating shooting opportunities and forcing saves from the Mexico goalkeeper.
    6Jordy CaicedoSTRegistered a shot on target that was saved by the Mexico goalkeeper, contributing to attacking efforts.
  • EnglandvsDR Congo
    採点済み28 Junに確定
    2 – 1
    • England · 実現58.2%
    • 引き分け30.3%
    • DR Congo11.5%
    判定
    Strong read

    England 2–1 DR Congo was the outcome the model rated most likely (58.2% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.280, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    England
    9Harry KaneSTScored both crucial goals for England, including the winner, showcasing clinical finishing and leadership when his team needed it most.
    9Noni MaduekeRWScored two goals with clinical finishing, establishing himself as a key attacking threat for England.
    8Anthony GordonLWScored a goal, demonstrating good positioning and clinical finishing within the penalty area.
    DR Congo
    9Congo DR GK #1GKDelivered an exceptional goalkeeping performance, making numerous crucial saves that kept his team competitive throughout the match.
    8SapangaSTScored a crucial opening goal for Congo DR with a clinical finish, giving his team an early lead.
    6Chancel MbembaCBMade an attacking effort that forced a save from the England goalkeeper, showing offensive intent from defense.
  • BelgiumvsSenegal
    採点済み28 Junに確定
    3 – 2
    • Belgium · 実現44.8%
    • 引き分け28.7%
    • Senegal26.5%
    判定
    Within expectations

    Belgium 3–2 Senegal was the outcome the model rated most likely (44.8% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.457, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Belgium
    8Thibaut CourtoisGKMade multiple critical saves, keeping Belgium in contention despite conceding two goals.
    8Romelu LukakuSTScored a crucial header that sparked Belgium's comeback from a two-goal deficit.
    8Dodi LukébakioRWDelivered a crucial and accurate cross for Belgium's first goal, initiating the comeback.
    Senegal
    8Ismaïla SarrRWScored Senegal's second goal with excellent pace and finishing, and created an early chance.
    7Habib DialloSTScored the opening goal for Senegal with a well-placed finish.
    7Sadio ManéSTScored an impressive individual goal, showcasing his dribbling and finishing skills.

See how the forecast holds up

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Model report card — 1 Jul 2026 · onthepitch