公開の場で検証

29 Jun 2026

以下のすべての確率はキックオフ前に公開され、確定されました。このページでは、それぞれを実際の結果と照らし合わせて採点します。

2試合中2試合を採点済み
0
的中
高い確信、正しい結果
1
鋭い読み
起こった結果に最も高い確率を与えた
1
想定内
結果は予想の範囲内だった
0
予想外
モデルはこの結果を予測できなかった

日別平均： Within expectations

  • GermanyvsParaguay
    採点済み28 Junに確定
    1 – 1
    • Germany52.5%
    • 引き分け · 実現27.6%
    • Paraguay19.9%
    判定
    Within expectations

    Germany 1–1 Paraguay was an outcome the model rated at 27.6% (27.6% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.840, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Germany
    8Kai HavertzSTScored Germany's equalizer with a clever header and was a constant attacking threat, creating multiple scoring opportunities.
    7Joshua KimmichCMA central figure in Germany's midfield, dictating tempo and contributing significantly to both offensive build-up and defensive control.
    4Manuel NeuerGKMade a significant error leading to an opposition chance and failed to make a decisive save in the penalty shootout.
    Paraguay
    9GillGKA standout performer whose multiple crucial saves in regular and extra time, along with a penalty save in the shootout, were instrumental in Paraguay's victory.
    8GalarzaSTScored the crucial opening goal for Paraguay from a set piece, giving his team an early lead.
    7CanaleConverted the decisive penalty in the shootout, securing Paraguay's progression to the next round.
  • BrazilvsJapan
    採点済み28 Junに確定
    2 – 1
    • Brazil · 実現49.5%
    • 引き分け27.6%
    • Japan22.9%
    判定
    Strong read

    Brazil 2–1 Japan was the outcome the model rated most likely (49.5% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.384, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Brazil
    8CasemiroDMScored Brazil's vital equalizing goal with a header, showcasing his aerial threat and leadership.
    8MartinelliLWScored the decisive winning goal for Brazil with a clinical finish from inside the penalty area.
    7Vinicius Jr.LWDisplayed excellent dribbling skills, beating a defender and having a powerful shot denied by the goalkeeper and the post.
    Japan
    8SuzukiGKMade several crucial saves throughout the match, preventing Brazil from scoring more goals and keeping Japan competitive.
    8SanoAMScored Japan's only goal with a composed finish after a strong attacking run, giving his team a surprising lead.
    4TomiyasuCBWas directly beaten by Vinicius Jr. in a dangerous attacking sequence, highlighting a defensive vulnerability.

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Model report card — 29 Jun 2026 · onthepitch