Paraguay
Snapshot · 2026-07-14Model 1.0.0CONMEBOL·グループ D·FIFA #39
Model rates them #22 by tournament-winner probability — 17 places higher than FIFA #39.
- ライバル
- United States (#14)
- 注目
- Antonio Sanabria (FW)
Final squad announced · Paraguay · 2026-06-02
Source: Atlanta United FC ↗WC2026 results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12 | United States | 1–4 | L | Inglewood |
| Jun 19 | Turkey | 1–0 | W | Santa Clara |
| Jun 25 | Australia | 0–0 | D | Santa Clara |
| Jun 29 | Germany | 1–1 | D | Boston |
トーナメントの見通し
Analysis
Paraguay carry a 0.4% probability of winning the tournament (22nd of 48). Watch for Diego León — 19 at kickoff — 1 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick. Drawn in Group D alongside United States, Australia, Turkey, they are projected at 66.0% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Paraguay under Gustavo Alfaro play a balanced game with 48% possession. They press intensely (PPDA 14.2, top quartile (3rd of 40)) and move the ball forward quickly at 5.7 passes per attack. They generate a high volume of shots (13.4 per 90).
Path to success
In Group D alongside United States, Australia, Turkey, Paraguay are projected at 66.0% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 33.1%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Paraguay will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.
Controversial take
The model and FIFA rankings tell different stories for Paraguay. Model rates them #22 by tournament-winner probability — 17 places higher than FIFA #39.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Balanced · style profile from 3 recent matches
What to watch: an open-play creation profile, light on set pieces.
Percentiles position Paraguay against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group D finish · Paraguay
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 20.8%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 24.7%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 26.5%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 28.0%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Paraguay
, 100,000 sims- 64.9%AdvAdvance from group
- 29.8%R16Round of 16
- 9.7%QFQuarter-final
- 2.8%SFSemi-final
- 0.8%FFinal
- 0.2%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Paraguay
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsスカッド
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 2/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.500
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 100%
- 2 of 2 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Getafe1
- Torino1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Omar AldereteCentre-backLikely cover: Gustavo Velázquez · 0.41Cerro Porteño0.38gap to repl.
- Júnior AlonsoCentre-backLikely cover: Gustavo Velázquez · 0.41Cerro Porteño0.37gap to repl.
- Miguel AlmirónWingerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level W ~0.280.35gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
グループステージ日程
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 12, 2026 | United States | Inglewood, United States |
| 2 | Jun 19, 2026 | Turkey | Santa Clara, United States |
| 3 | Jun 25, 2026 | Australia | Santa Clara, United States |
対戦成績
ストーリー
Storylines
Updated 49 days agoModel rates them #22 by tournament-winner probability — 17 places higher than FIFA #39.
19 at kickoff — 1 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
Only 3 of 26 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.
Top pool goalkeeper Carlos Coronel rates only 0.45 on club save metrics (the field's top sides sit at 0.85+) — a thin position group going into the tournament.
フォームと実績
Video analysis: Paraguay
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 5 matches. 16 players observed, 10 events tracked.
Delivered an exceptional performance with multiple crucial saves, single-handedly preserving the clean sheet and the team's lead, especially after playing with ten men.
Match by match
Player ratings (16)
9Paraguay's Goalkeeper1 app9▼
Delivered an exceptional performance with multiple crucial saves, single-handedly preserving the clean sheet and the team's lead, especially after playing with ten men.
9Desire Doue1 app9▼
Scored two crucial goals and displayed excellent dribbling and composure throughout the match.
9Gill1 app9▼
A standout performer whose multiple crucial saves in regular and extra time, along with a penalty save in the shootout, were instrumental in Paraguay's victory.
8Matías Galarza1 app · 3 events1 goal1 header8▼
Scored the opening goal for Paraguay from a corner kick, providing a crucial lead.
8Miguel Almirón1 app · 1 events8▼
Delivered the crucial corner kick that directly resulted in Paraguay's first goal.
8Player #231 app8▼
Scored the decisive early goal with clinical finishing, which proved to be the match-winner.
8Galarza1 app8▼
Scored the crucial opening goal for Paraguay from a set piece, giving his team an early lead.
7.5Canale2 apps · 1 events1 goal87▼
7Álex Arce1 app · 1 events1 shot (1 on target)7▼
Generated a strong scoring chance that required a good save from the opponent's goalkeeper.
7VOLPATO1 app · 1 events1 shot (1 on target)7▼
Demonstrated individual skill with multiple attacking movements and shots on target.
7Ancisio1 app7▼
Registered a shot on target, testing the Australian goalkeeper.
6Mauricio1 app · 2 events2 shots6▼
Showed willingness to create opportunities by attempting a shot from distance.
5Gustavo Gómez1 app · 1 events5▼
Committed a foul early in the match, which could have led to a dangerous set-piece.
4Carlos Sanchez1 app4▼
Had a mixed performance in midfield, struggling with possession and giving the ball away, which limited his overall impact.
3Damian Bobadilla1 app3▼
Scored an own goal that put the USA ahead, representing a costly error for his team.
2Aldarete1 app2▼
Received an early red card for a dangerous challenge, severely disadvantaging his team for the majority of the match.
Match observations
- gs-007The event commenced with an elaborate pre-game ceremony, featuring national anthems and a fireworks display, which generated a vibrant atmosphere.
- gs-007The crowd was highly engaged and enthusiastic, both within the stadium and in external viewing locations, reacting with great excitement to the goals.
- gs-007The USA team showcased effective offensive movements, leading to several successful attempts on goal during the compilation.
- gs-032Paraguay secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Turkey in a match that saw an early goal and a red card.
- gs-032Paraguay's early strike allowed them to adopt a defensive posture, which they maintained effectively despite being reduced to ten men.
- gs-032Turkey dominated possession and created numerous chances, particularly in the second half, but were unable to convert their opportunities.
- gs-056The match was a hard-fought encounter with both teams creating scoring opportunities.
- gs-056Australia's goalkeeper, Hill, was particularly busy, making several key saves to deny Paraguay.
- gs-056Despite numerous attempts from both sides, neither team managed to find the back of the net, resulting in a goalless draw.
- r16-001France delivered a dominant performance, controlling possession and creating numerous scoring opportunities throughout the match.
- r16-001Paraguay struggled to convert their limited chances, often finding their shots blocked or saved by the French defence.
- r16-001The match was largely one-sided, with France securing a comfortable 3-0 victory.
- r32-002This knockout stage encounter saw Paraguay secure a historic victory over Germany.
- r32-002The match was a tightly contested affair, with both teams finding the net once in regular time.
- r32-002Germany pressed hard in extra time, but Paraguay's goalkeeper was resolute, forcing the game into a penalty shootout.
Statistical profile
BalancedAttack
Defence
GK: Carlos Coronel
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
Thin sample: 3 matches in the open dataset. Read the split as indicative rather than settled.
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 3 matches (CopaAmerica2024). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Paraguay trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1833.0 to 1833.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.2% to 0.5% (+0.2pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NMorocco | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | AGreece | 1–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | NMexico | 2–1 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-11-15 | AUnited States | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-10-14 | ASouth Korea | 0–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-10-10 | AJapan | 2–2 | D | Kirin Cup |
| 2025-09-09 | APeru | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-04 | HEcuador | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-10 | ABrazil | 0–1 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-05 | HUruguay | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 10 | 2-2-6 | 2026 — Loss (1–4) · FIFA World Cup |
| Australia | 5 | 0-3-2 | 2010 — Loss (0–1) · Friendly |
| Turkey | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2026 — Win (1–0) · FIFA World Cup |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copa América | 2024 | Group stage | 0-0-3 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2010 | Quarter-finals | 1-3-1 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Costa Rica · Copa América 2016
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1865) and group draw.
Colombia · Copa América 2011
Exited at the quarter-final
Ecuador · Copa América 2015
Exited at the group stage
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