Medido en público

29 Jun 2026

Cada probabilidad de abajo se publicó antes del inicio y quedó fijada. Esta página califica cada una frente a lo que realmente ocurrió.

2 de 2 partidos calificados
0
Clavado
Alta confianza, resultado correcto
1
Buena lectura
Dio la mayor probabilidad a lo que ocurrió
1
Esperado
El resultado estuvo dentro del rango
0
Sorpresa
El modelo no vio venir esto

Promedio del día: Within expectations

  • GermanyvsParaguay
    CalificadoFijado 28 Jun
    1 – 1
    • Germany52.5%
    • Empate · ocurrido27.6%
    • Paraguay19.9%
    Veredicto
    Within expectations

    Germany 1–1 Paraguay was an outcome the model rated at 27.6% (27.6% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.840, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Germany
    8Kai HavertzSTScored Germany's equalizer with a clever header and was a constant attacking threat, creating multiple scoring opportunities.
    7Joshua KimmichCMA central figure in Germany's midfield, dictating tempo and contributing significantly to both offensive build-up and defensive control.
    4Manuel NeuerGKMade a significant error leading to an opposition chance and failed to make a decisive save in the penalty shootout.
    Paraguay
    9GillGKA standout performer whose multiple crucial saves in regular and extra time, along with a penalty save in the shootout, were instrumental in Paraguay's victory.
    8GalarzaSTScored the crucial opening goal for Paraguay from a set piece, giving his team an early lead.
    7CanaleConverted the decisive penalty in the shootout, securing Paraguay's progression to the next round.
  • BrazilvsJapan
    CalificadoFijado 28 Jun
    2 – 1
    • Brazil · ocurrido49.5%
    • Empate27.6%
    • Japan22.9%
    Veredicto
    Strong read

    Brazil 2–1 Japan was the outcome the model rated most likely (49.5% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.384, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Brazil
    8CasemiroDMScored Brazil's vital equalizing goal with a header, showcasing his aerial threat and leadership.
    8MartinelliLWScored the decisive winning goal for Brazil with a clinical finish from inside the penalty area.
    7Vinicius Jr.LWDisplayed excellent dribbling skills, beating a defender and having a powerful shot denied by the goalkeeper and the post.
    Japan
    8SuzukiGKMade several crucial saves throughout the match, preventing Brazil from scoring more goals and keeping Japan competitive.
    8SanoAMScored Japan's only goal with a composed finish after a strong attacking run, giving his team a surprising lead.
    4TomiyasuCBWas directly beaten by Vinicius Jr. in a dangerous attacking sequence, highlighting a defensive vulnerability.

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Model report card — 29 Jun 2026 · onthepitch