Brazil
Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0CONMEBOL·المجموعة C·FIFA #5
High-pressing side led by Gabriel Jesus.
التشكيل الأخير: 4-2-3-1 (4 من 5)
- منافس
- Morocco (#11)
- رئيسي
- Raphinha (FW)
Final squad announced · Brazil · 2026-05-18
Source: Yahoo Sports ↗نظرة عامة على البطولة
Analysis
Brazil are among the tournament frontrunners — the model rates them at 9.5%, 3rd in the field. Watch for Endrick — 19 at kickoff — 15 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick. Drawn in Group C alongside Morocco, Scotland, Haiti, they are projected at 99.3% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Brazil under Carlo Ancelotti play a high press game, holding 58% of the ball — among the highest in the tournament field. Their likely shape is a 4-2-3-1, though they have also used 4-3-3. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 17.1) and build patiently through midfield with 7.2 passes per attacking sequence. They generate a high volume of shots (16.5 per 90).
Path to success
Their route begins in Group C with Morocco, Scotland, Haiti, where the model projects a 70.9% chance of finishing top and 99.3% of advancing. From there the projected knockout path runs: round of 32 (69.7%), quarter-finals (47.3%), semi-finals (30.7%), the final (17.0%). Sustaining intensity through up to seven matches across three host countries will demand squad depth and adaptability.
What they must execute
Brazil need their high press to force turnovers in dangerous areas — if opponents can play through the press, the space left behind is vulnerable. Physical conditioning and squad rotation will be critical to sustain pressing intensity across a long tournament.
Controversial take
The model rates Brazil significantly higher than their FIFA ranking implies — a gap of 3.2 percentage points. This reflects the model's assessment of underlying squad quality and recent form that the ranking system may lag behind.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
High press · style profile from 14 recent matches
What to watch: a slower, more circuitous attack.
Percentiles position Brazil against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group C finish · Brazil
Monte Carlo, 50,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 67.3%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 24.6%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 7.7%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 0.5%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Brazil
, 50,000 sims- 98.8%AdvAdvance from group
- 69.3%R16Round of 16
- 47.5%QFQuarter-final
- 30.7%SFSemi-final
- 17.2%FFinal
- 9.8%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Brazil
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsالتشكيلة
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.143
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 43%
- 3 of 7 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Chelsea1
- Paris Saint Germain1
- Juventus1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Bruno GuimarãesCentral midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level CM ~0.280.59gap to repl.
- EdersonGoalkeeperLikely cover: Alisson · 0.51Liverpool0.42gap to repl.
- Lucas PaquetáAttacking midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level AM ~0.410.26gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
جدول المجموعة
Group-stage schedule
المواجهات المباشرة
قصص
Storylines
Updated 14 days agoModel's top anytime-scorer for the team — 32% probability of scoring at least once, rank #4 of all players.
19 at kickoff — 15 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
Conceded only 0.55 xG per match across 6 recent internationals — #4 of 35 in the field for defensive solidity.
Squad averages 1.76 xG per match across club football last season — #5 of 20 in the field for attacking pedigree from each player's domestic side (13 of 24 players matched to a known club).
الحالة والسجل
Statistical profile
High PressAttack
Defence
GK: Alisson
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 14 matches (CopaAmerica2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10Brazil trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1984.0 to 1984.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 10.5% to 9.7% (−0.8pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NCroatia | 3–1 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-03-26 | NFrance | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | NTunisia | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-11-15 | NSenegal | 2–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-10-14 | AJapan | 2–3 | L | Kirin Cup |
| 2025-10-10 | ASouth Korea | 5–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-09-09 | ABolivia | 0–1 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-04 | HChile | 3–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-10 | HParaguay | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-05 | AEcuador | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 10 | 8-2-0 | 2011 — Win (2–0) · Friendly |
| Haiti | 3 | 3-0-0 | 2016 — Win (7–1) · Copa América |
| Morocco | 3 | 2-0-1 | 2023 — Loss (1–2) · Friendly |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copa América | 2024 | Quarter-finals | 1-3-0 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Quarter-finals | 3-1-1 |
|
| Gold Cup | 2003 | 5 matches | 3-0-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Argentina · World Cup 2018
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 2045) and group draw.