Mesuré en public
25 Jun 2026
Chaque probabilité ci-dessous a été publiée avant le coup d'envoi et verrouillée. Cette page note chacune d'elles par rapport à ce qui s'est réellement passé.
Moyenne du jour : Within expectations
- NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun2 – 3
- United States26.7%
- Match nul25.5%
- Turkey · réalisé47.8%
VerdictStrong readUnited States 2–3 Turkey was the outcome the model rated most likely (47.8% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.408, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
United States8Folarin BalogunSTScored the crucial opening goal and showed good attacking instincts, despite an earlier disallowed goal.8Timothy WeahSTScored an early goal from a scramble, demonstrating quick reactions and opportunism.7Christian PulisicAMShowed flashes of brilliance with a powerful shot on target and a creative backheel pass that initiated an attack.Turkey7BIH GoalkeeperGKMade multiple crucial saves throughout the match, demonstrating excellent shot-stopping ability under continuous pressure.6MimicCMRegistered one of his team's few attempts on goal, showing some offensive initiative for a struggling side.6BIH Player #8Showed good attacking initiative by scoring after a run, though the goal was not reflected in the final match score. - 0 – 0
- Paraguay36.1%
- Match nul · réalisé30.8%
- Australia33.2%
VerdictWithin expectationsParaguay 0–0 Australia was an outcome the model rated at 30.8% (30.8% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.719, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Paraguay8Matías GalarzaCMScored the opening goal for Paraguay from a corner kick, providing a crucial lead.8CanaleSTConverted the decisive penalty kick to secure Paraguay's victory in the shootout.8Miguel AlmirónRWDelivered the crucial corner kick that directly resulted in Paraguay's first goal.Australia8GillGKMade several critical saves in extra time, keeping his team in the match and preventing further goals.8HillGKMade several crucial saves throughout the match, maintaining his team's competitive position.7Jordan BosLWDemonstrated attacking intent with a shot on target and drew a foul in a dangerous area. - 1 – 2
- Germany42.4%
- Match nul26.7%
- Ecuador · réalisé30.9%
VerdictWithin expectationsGermany 1–2 Ecuador was an outcome the model rated at 30.9% (30.9% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.728, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Germany8WirtzAMScored Germany's opening goal with a clinical finish, showcasing excellent positioning and attacking prowess.8RodriguezRWScored the decisive winning goal from a corner kick, proving to be a match-winner for Ecuador.8Ecuador GKGKMade multiple crucial saves, particularly from headers and a late shot, to secure Ecuador's victory and maintain their lead.Ecuador9AnguloSTScored a brilliant equalizer with individual skill and was a constant offensive threat, testing the German goalkeeper multiple times.8ViteCMDelivered the corner kick that directly led to Ecuador's winning goal, showcasing his excellent set-piece delivery.6ValenciaSTContributed to Ecuador's attack with a shot on target that tested the German goalkeeper. - NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun0 – 2
- Curaçao8.3%
- Match nul20.2%
- Ivory Coast · réalisé71.5%
VerdictNailed itCuraçao 0–2 Ivory Coast was the outcome the model rated most likely (71.5% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.129, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Curaçao6Leandro BacunaCMContributed to the attack with a shot on goal, but had limited overall decisive impact.5Tahith ChongAMShowed attacking intent with multiple shots but was unable to convert his opportunities.Ivory Coast9Nicolas PepeRWScored both goals for Ivory Coast, demonstrating clinical finishing and a strong attacking presence.8Yahia FofanaGKMade crucial saves to maintain a clean sheet and secure the win for Ivory Coast.8Amad DialloAMScored a crucial goal shortly after coming on as a substitute, proving to be the match-winner. - NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun3 – 1
- Netherlands · réalisé65.7%
- Match nul23.9%
- Tunisia10.4%
VerdictNailed itNetherlands 3–1 Tunisia was the outcome the model rated most likely (65.7% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.186, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
NetherlandsTunisia8Daichi KamadaAMScored the crucial opening goal, demonstrating excellent predatory instincts and composure.8DahmenGKMade multiple outstanding saves, including a critical goal-line stop, preventing an even heavier defeat for Tunisia.8Ritsu DoanRWScored a powerful and well-placed second goal, showcasing his strong shooting ability. - 1 – 1
- Japan50.6%
- Match nul · réalisé25.6%
- Sweden23.8%
VerdictWithin expectationsJapan 1–1 Sweden was an outcome the model rated at 25.6% (25.6% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.866, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Japan8Daizen MaedaSTScored Japan's crucial opening goal with excellent composure and finishing ability.6Ao TanakaCMPositioned himself well for a shot but failed to hit the target, indicating a missed opportunity.Sweden6Benjamin NygrenMade a late appearance without any described impact on the match.
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