Mesuré en public
26 Jun 2026
Chaque probabilité ci-dessous a été publiée avant le coup d'envoi et verrouillée. Cette page note chacune d'elles par rapport à ce qui s'est réellement passé.
Moyenne du jour : Strong read
- NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun5 – 1
- Belgium · réalisé79.0%
- Match nul16.4%
- New Zealand4.6%
VerdictNailed itBelgium 5–1 New Zealand was the outcome the model rated most likely (79.0% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.073, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Belgium9Leandro TrossardAMTrossard was clinical in front of goal, scoring two crucial goals that set Belgium on their way to victory.9Kevin De BruyneCMDe Bruyne orchestrated Belgium's attack with a goal and a key assist, demonstrating his exceptional vision and passing.9Romelu LukakuSTLukaku made an immediate and decisive impact, scoring two goals with clinical finishing to further extend Belgium's lead.New Zealand7Elijah JustLWJust provided New Zealand's only goal, showing good positioning to capitalize on a corner.5Chris WoodSTWood had a shot blocked, but otherwise struggled to make a significant impact in a difficult match for his team. - 1 – 1
- Egypt27.5%
- Match nul · réalisé29.8%
- Iran42.8%
VerdictWithin expectationsEgypt 1–1 Iran was an outcome the model rated at 29.8% (29.8% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.751, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Egypt9TrézéguetLWScored two crucial goals and consistently posed an offensive threat with powerful shots and dribbling.7Mohanad LasheenCMMade a vital defensive block to prevent a goal during a dangerous Iranian attack.7SentolanCBMade a critical defensive block from an Iranian corner, clearing the danger.Iran8Ramin RezaeianRBScored Iran's equalizing goal with good positioning and composure in a crowded area.7RaminCMProvided a crucial assist for Iran's equalizer, showing good composure and vision.7Mehdi GhayediAMTapped in a goal to equalize for Iran, demonstrating good positioning. - 1 – 0
- Spain · réalisé59.9%
- Match nul25.3%
- Uruguay14.8%
VerdictStrong readSpain 1–0 Uruguay was the outcome the model rated most likely (59.9% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.247, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Spain8Mikel OyarzabalLWScored the crucial opening goal with a clinical finish from inside the box.8Borja MayoralSTScored Spain's second goal by arriving in the box with excellent timing and a well-placed finish.8Marc CucurellaLBSecured Spain's third goal with a decisive forward run and clinical finish from a defensive position.Uruguay9Alexander SchlagerGKMade multiple brilliant and crucial saves, preventing a much larger deficit for his team.8Nicolás de la CruzAMWas instrumental in creating offensive opportunities for Uruguay through his dribbling and passing. - NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun0 – 0
- Cape Verde32.2%
- Match nul · réalisé29.6%
- Saudi Arabia38.1%
VerdictWithin expectationsCape Verde 0–0 Saudi Arabia was an outcome the model rated at 29.6% (29.6% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.744, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Cape Verde8DA COSTASTScored two crucial goals with clinical finishing from inside the box.7Nuno da CostaSTWas a persistent attacking threat, forcing multiple good saves from the goalkeeper.6SemedoRWInvolved in multiple attacking sequences, demonstrating a willingness to shoot but lacked precision.Saudi Arabia8Al-OwaisGKMade numerous crucial saves to keep his team in the game despite sustained pressure.6Al-ShammariSTHad a shot on target that was saved by the opposing goalkeeper.6CHAKHTICMContributed to offensive movements and provided support in the final third. - 4 – 1
- France · réalisé56.3%
- Match nul24.0%
- Norway19.6%
VerdictStrong readFrance 4–1 Norway was the outcome the model rated most likely (56.3% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.287, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
France9Kylian MbappéSTScored two goals and was a relentless attacking force, despite having other attempts denied by the woodwork or offside.9Michael OliseRWProvided an assist and was a constant creative threat with his dribbling and passing, directly contributing to two goals and creating numerous chances.8Mike MaignanGKMade a vital penalty save and another key stop, maintaining France's advantage and preventing Norway from gaining momentum.Norway8Erling HaalandSTScored Norway's winning goal with a composed finish, securing the victory for his team.7Thelo AasgaardAMScored Norway's only goal, providing a brief moment of hope and demonstrating clinical finishing.7Oscar BobbRWEarned a penalty for Norway and had a shot on target, demonstrating his attacking intent and ability to create danger. - 5 – 0
- Senegal · réalisé62.4%
- Match nul26.5%
- Iraq11.1%
VerdictStrong readSenegal 5–0 Iraq was the outcome the model rated most likely (62.4% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.224, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Senegal9Sadio ManéLWA standout performer who scored two impressive goals, including a powerful shot after a skillful dribble, demonstrating exceptional attacking prowess.8Lamine CamaraCMScored the crucial opening goal with a well-placed header, setting the tone for Senegal's dominant performance.8Ismaïla SarrRWShowed excellent pace and clinical finishing, scoring a crucial goal and creating an early chance that tested the opposition goalkeeper.Iraq5Ali Al-HamadiSTDespite being observed in defensive actions, he was ultimately unable to prevent Senegal's goals, indicating a struggle to impact the game defensively.5TariqWas observed in defensive positions during Senegal's attacks, but his efforts were not enough to prevent the team from conceding multiple goals.4Manaf YounesCBStruggled defensively against Senegal's attacking moves, contributing to his team conceding multiple goals.
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