Mesuré en public

21 Jun 2026

Chaque probabilité ci-dessous a été publiée avant le coup d'envoi et verrouillée. Cette page note chacune d'elles par rapport à ce qui s'est réellement passé.

4 sur 4 matchs notés
1
Dans le mille
Forte confiance, bon résultat
1
Bonne lecture
A donné le plus de probabilité à ce qui s'est passé
1
Attendu
Le résultat était dans la fourchette
1
Surprise
Le modèle ne l'avait pas vu venir

Moyenne du jour : Within expectations

  • BelgiumvsIran
    NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun
    0 – 0
    • Belgium54.0%
    • Match nul · réalisé24.8%
    • Iran21.2%
    Verdict
    Within expectations

    Belgium 0–0 Iran was an outcome the model rated at 24.8% (24.8% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.903, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Bat les marchésA donné plus de probabilité au résultat

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Belgium
    9Thibaut CourtoisGKHis numerous world-class saves were instrumental in keeping Belgium in the match and securing a point.
    8Romelu LukakuSTScored the vital equalizing goal, providing the attacking impetus Belgium needed to get back into the match.
    6Kevin De BruyneCMShowed moments of quality in attack but failed to convert a clear scoring opportunity.
    Iran
    8Mehdi TaremiSTScored a brilliant opening goal and was a constant threat, but missed a crucial late chance that could have secured the win.
    7Mahdi TorabiAMCreated a dangerous scoring opportunity by breaking through and hitting the post, almost giving Iran an early lead.
    7Mehdi GhayediLWCreated a significant scoring opportunity by chipping the goalkeeper, which required a brilliant save to deny him.
  • EgyptvsNew Zealand
    NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun
    3 – 1
    • Egypt · réalisé53.9%
    • Match nul28.2%
    • New Zealand17.8%
    Verdict
    Strong read

    Egypt 3–1 New Zealand was the outcome the model rated most likely (53.9% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.324, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Les marchés ont donné plus de probabilité au résultat

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Egypt
    9Omar MarmoushSTScored two crucial goals with clinical finishing, putting Egypt back in the lead twice.
    9Mohamed SalahRWDelivered a standout offensive display with a powerful long-range goal and a composed penalty conversion.
    New Zealand
  • SpainvsSaudi Arabia
    NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun
    4 – 0
    • Spain · réalisé85.4%
    • Match nul12.2%
    • Saudi Arabia2.4%
    Verdict
    Nailed it

    Spain 4–0 Saudi Arabia was the outcome the model rated most likely (85.4% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.037, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Les marchés ont donné plus de probabilité au résultat

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Spain
    7.5Ferran TorresSTContributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
    7.5Mikel OyarzabalLWContributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
    7.5Dani OlmoLWContributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
    Saudi Arabia
    4Firas Al-BuraikanSTPart of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.
    4Salem Al-DawsariLWPart of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.
    4Mohamed KannoCMPart of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.
  • Cape VerdevsUruguay
    NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun
    2 – 2
    • Cape Verde5.9%
    • Match nul · réalisé21.4%
    • Uruguay72.8%
    Verdict
    Surprise result

    Cape Verde 2–2 Uruguay was an outcome the model rated at 21.4% (21.4% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 1.151, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Les marchés ont donné plus de probabilité au résultat

    Read: what the model missed →

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Cape Verde
    9Cabo Verde Player #13STScored two crucial goals, including a header and a composed chip, leading his team's comeback.
    Uruguay
    8Luis SuarezSTScored a spectacular opening goal with clinical finishing, providing a moment of individual brilliance.
    8Uruguay Player #9STScored a vital goal with good close control and a precise finish, briefly restoring his team's lead.

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Model report card — 21 Jun 2026 · onthepitch