Mesuré en public

20 Jun 2026

Chaque probabilité ci-dessous a été publiée avant le coup d'envoi et verrouillée. Cette page note chacune d'elles par rapport à ce qui s'est réellement passé.

4 sur 4 matchs notés
0
Dans le mille
Forte confiance, bon résultat
3
Bonne lecture
A donné le plus de probabilité à ce qui s'est passé
0
Attendu
Le résultat était dans la fourchette
1
Surprise
Le modèle ne l'avait pas vu venir

Moyenne du jour : Within expectations

  • GermanyvsIvory Coast
    NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun
    2 – 1
    • Germany · réalisé63.6%
    • Match nul23.1%
    • Ivory Coast13.3%
    Verdict
    Strong read

    Germany 2–1 Ivory Coast was the outcome the model rated most likely (63.6% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.203, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Bat les marchésA donné plus de probabilité au résultat

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Germany
    9Deniz UndavSTCame off the bench to score two decisive goals, including the equalizer and winner, completely turning the match around for Germany.
    7Kai HavertzSTDespite two disallowed goals, he was a constant threat in the German attack, demonstrating good movement and finishing instincts.
    7Florian WirtzAMA creative force for Germany, he used his technical ability, dribbling, and vision to unlock the opposition defense.
    Ivory Coast
    7Yahia FofanaGKMade crucial saves and commanded his box well, despite a foul call and ultimately conceding two goals.
    6Odilon KossounouCBWas involved in a crucial defensive moment where a foul on him led to a German goal being disallowed.
  • CuraçaovsEcuador
    NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun
    0 – 0
    • Curaçao2.9%
    • Match nul · réalisé15.0%
    • Ecuador82.1%
    Verdict
    Surprise result

    Curaçao 0–0 Ecuador was an outcome the model rated at 15.0% (15.0% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 1.397, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Bat les marchésA donné plus de probabilité au résultat

    Read: what the model missed →

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Curaçao
    Ecuador
    8Hernán GalíndezGKMade a crucial, athletic save from a powerful shot, denying a clear goal-scoring opportunity and keeping his team level.
  • NetherlandsvsSweden
    NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun
    5 – 1
    • Netherlands · réalisé61.2%
    • Match nul22.8%
    • Sweden16.1%
    Verdict
    Strong read

    Netherlands 5–1 Sweden was the outcome the model rated most likely (61.2% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.229, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Bat les marchésA donné plus de probabilité au résultat

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Netherlands
    9BrobbeySTScored two crucial early goals, demonstrating excellent predatory instincts and clinical finishing.
    9VerbruggenGKMade multiple crucial saves throughout the match, preventing Sweden from scoring more and maintaining the Netherlands' lead.
    9GakpoLW/STScored two clinical goals, significantly contributing to the Netherlands' dominant scoreline.
    Sweden
    7ElangaLW/STScored Sweden's only goal with a composed finish and showed good individual dribbling ability.
    6AyariAMTested the goalkeeper with a strong shot, demonstrating attacking intent from midfield.
    5IsakSTDespite multiple attempts and good movement, he was repeatedly denied by the goalkeeper and failed to convert his chances.
  • JapanvsTunisia
    NotésVerrouillé 10 Jun
    4 – 0
    • Japan · réalisé56.3%
    • Match nul27.7%
    • Tunisia16.1%
    Verdict
    Strong read

    Japan 4–0 Tunisia was the outcome the model rated most likely (56.3% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.294, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Les marchés ont donné plus de probabilité au résultat

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Japan
    8Daichi KamadaAMScored the crucial opening goal with excellent positioning and a clinical finish.
    8Ritsu DoanRWScored a fantastic second goal with a powerful and accurate shot from outside the box.
    8Junya ItoRWScored the third goal with a composed finish after a well-timed run onto a through ball.
    Tunisia
    8Mouez DahmenGKMade multiple outstanding and crucial saves, including a goal-line stop, preventing an even larger defeat for Tunisia.

See how the forecast holds up

OnThePitch grades every probability against what actually happens, and publishes the calibration in the open. Subscribe to follow the retrospectives and research as they ship — one email per post, no marketing.

Already read on Substack? Follow OnThePitch there — same posts, slightly different format.

Model report card — 20 Jun 2026 · onthepitch