Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Group I · Matchday 3

SenegalvsIraq

·15:00 local

Snapshot · 2026-05-28Model 1.0.0Effectif de Senegal →Effectif de Iraq →Suivi en direct →Confrontation directe →

Latest news & match context

Team news

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Match conditions

Stage:: Group I · Matchday 3

Both sides enter this fixture with some fitness concerns among their squad members. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Match-outcome probability

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CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

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The model's full forecast for this match

Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths, all from one Dixon-Coles fit. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

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See exactly how Senegal v Iraq plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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