Group F · Matchday 3
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Neither side wants sustained possession. Japan's low block and Sweden's transition approach could produce a cagey contest decided by set pieces and moments. Japan's aggressive press (PPDA 26.7) against Sweden's deeper build-up (PPDA 31.2) creates a clear territory question: can Japan force errors high up, or will Sweden play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Japan defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Sweden will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. The scoring threat is evenly split: Daichi Kamada (6.4%) and Emil Forsberg (4.8%).
Off the pitch
Hajime Moriyasu (8 years in charge of Japan) vs Graham Potter (1 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Yūto Nagatomo. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Japan or Sweden.
- Stage:
- Group F · Matchday 3
- Date:
- 25 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Japan
Japan: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.
- DoubtWataru Endo (midfielder) is carrying Foot injury — a depth-level fitness watch item.
Sweden
Sweden come in at close to full strength.
Both projected XIs look intact; the fitness concerns are at squad-depth level rather than among first-choice starters.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Japan minus Sweden: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 32'Yellow cardIsak Hien· FoulIsak Hien is booked — Foul.
- 37'SubstitutionIsak Hien· Lucas BergvallSweden change: Lucas Bergvall.
- SubstitutionKo Itakura· Shogo TaniguchiJapan change: Shogo Taniguchi.39'
- GoalDaizen Maeda· Ritsu DoanDaizen Maeda scores for Japan.56'
- 62'GoalAnthony Elanga· Viktor GyökeresAnthony Elanga scores for Sweden.
- SubstitutionAyase Ueda· Koki OgawaJapan change: Koki Ogawa.66'
- SubstitutionRitsu Doan· Junya ItoJapan change: Junya Ito.67'
- 75'SubstitutionAlexander Bernhardsson· Daniel SvenssonSweden change: Daniel Svensson.
- 75'SubstitutionElliot Stroud· Ken SemaSweden change: Ken Sema.
- SubstitutionKeito Nakamura· Yuto NagatomoJapan change: Yuto Nagatomo.75'
- SubstitutionAyumu Seko· Tsuyoshi WatanabeJapan change: Tsuyoshi Watanabe.75'
- Yellow cardShogo Taniguchi· FoulShogo Taniguchi is booked — Foul.77'
- 85'Yellow cardViktor Gyökeres· FoulViktor Gyökeres is booked — Foul.
- 87'SubstitutionVictor Lindelöf· Carl StarfeltSweden change: Carl Starfelt.
- 88'SubstitutionGabriel Gudmundsson· Benjamin NygrenSweden change: Benjamin Nygren.
Player involvement
Japan
Sweden
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.4%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.3%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Japan win51.5%
- Draw· realised25.7%
- Sweden win22.8%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.