Group F · Matchday 3

Full-timeFT
Japan
1:1
Sweden

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Live descriptive stats

JapanSweden
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Japan1.400.00−1.40
Sweden1.090.00−1.09

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
8
11
Shots on target
3
5
Possession (%)
52%
48%
Corners
2
8
Fouls
20
11
Yellow cards
1
2
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Neither side wants sustained possession. Japan's low block and Sweden's transition approach could produce a cagey contest decided by set pieces and moments. Japan's aggressive press (PPDA 26.7) against Sweden's deeper build-up (PPDA 31.2) creates a clear territory question: can Japan force errors high up, or will Sweden play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Japan defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Sweden will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. The scoring threat is evenly split: Daichi Kamada (6.4%) and Emil Forsberg (4.8%).

Off the pitch

Hajime Moriyasu (8 years in charge of Japan) vs Graham Potter (1 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Yūto Nagatomo. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Japan or Sweden.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group F · Matchday 3
Date:
25 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Japan

Japan: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtWataru Endo (midfielder) is carrying Foot injury — a depth-level fitness watch item.

Sweden

Sweden come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Both projected XIs look intact; the fitness concerns are at squad-depth level rather than among first-choice starters.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

ライブ記述的スタッツと遅延付きライブ勝利確率 · 約30秒ごとに更新

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Japan (above the line)Sweden (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 56' · Daizen MaedaGoal, 62' · Anthony Elanga

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Japan minus Sweden: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

JapanSweden
  • 32'Yellow cardIsak Hien· FoulIsak Hien is booked — Foul.
  • 37'SubstitutionIsak Hien· Lucas BergvallSweden change: Lucas Bergvall.
  • SubstitutionKo Itakura· Shogo TaniguchiJapan change: Shogo Taniguchi.39'
  • GoalDaizen Maeda· Ritsu DoanDaizen Maeda scores for Japan.56'
  • 62'GoalAnthony Elanga· Viktor GyökeresAnthony Elanga scores for Sweden.
  • SubstitutionAyase Ueda· Koki OgawaJapan change: Koki Ogawa.66'
  • SubstitutionRitsu Doan· Junya ItoJapan change: Junya Ito.67'
  • 75'SubstitutionAlexander Bernhardsson· Daniel SvenssonSweden change: Daniel Svensson.
  • 75'SubstitutionElliot Stroud· Ken SemaSweden change: Ken Sema.
  • SubstitutionKeito Nakamura· Yuto NagatomoJapan change: Yuto Nagatomo.75'
  • SubstitutionAyumu Seko· Tsuyoshi WatanabeJapan change: Tsuyoshi Watanabe.75'
  • Yellow cardShogo Taniguchi· FoulShogo Taniguchi is booked — Foul.77'
  • 85'Yellow cardViktor Gyökeres· FoulViktor Gyökeres is booked — Foul.
  • 87'SubstitutionVictor Lindelöf· Carl StarfeltSweden change: Carl Starfelt.
  • 88'SubstitutionGabriel Gudmundsson· Benjamin NygrenSweden change: Benjamin Nygren.

Player involvement

Japan

Daizen Maeda56' Goal
ARitsu Doan56' Assist · 67' On
Shogo Taniguchi39' Off · 77' Yellow card

Sweden

Anthony Elanga62' Goal
AViktor Gyökeres62' Assist · 85' Yellow card
Isak Hien32' Yellow card · 37' On
試合前モデルキックオフ前に固定

Pre-match forecast

Japan win
49.6%
Draw
24.1%
Sweden win
26.3%
Japan
1.40
expected
goals
Sweden
1.09

この試合の公開確率はスタメン確定時（キックオフ約1時間前）に固定され、その後は更新されません。試合後の振り返りが照合するのはこの数値です。ライブセクションのライブ勝利確率は別枠の遅延付き・記述的な推定値で、公開済みの予測に取って代わるものではありません。

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–1
    13.4%
  • 1–0
    10.8%
  • 0–0
    9.1%
  • 2–1
    8.8%
  • 0–1
    8.3%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

1 – 1
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Japan win
    51.5%
  • Draw· realised
    25.7%
  • Sweden win
    22.8%
Brier score
0.869
Log loss
1.357
xG (final / predicted)
1.00 / 1.40 · Japan
1.00 / 1.09 · Sweden
P(realised outcome)
25.7%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

予測 vs 結果の完全な振り返り →

ライブ確率の仕組み。 公開済みの試合前予測はスタメン確定（T-1h）時点で凍結され、キックオフ後は変わりません。試合後の振り返りでは、この凍結された数値を結果と照合します。試合中に表示されるライブ勝利確率は、同じモデルを現在のスコアと残り時間に合わせて読み直したものです。約1分ごとに更新され、常に遅延があり、記述的なリサーチ数値であって、遊技商品でも何らかの価格でもありません。全体の枠組みは /docs/methodology/ を参照してください。