Group F · Matchday 3
← Previsão pré-jogoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Japan win51.4%
- Draw25.2%
- Sweden win23.3%
Analysis
The model gives Japan a moderate advantage at 51.4% versus 23.3% for Sweden (draw 25.2%). A 185-point Elo gap gives Japan a measurable advantage, though the gap is narrow enough that a single result could close it. A Group F fixture with advance probabilities of 84.9% for Japan and 56.4% for Sweden.
Tactical matchup
Japan (low block) meet Sweden (transition heavy) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Japan typically dominate possession (44%) compared to Sweden's 36% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match. Japan press significantly higher (PPDA 26.7) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic. Sweden carry a notably high set-piece xG share (19%) — dead-ball situations could be a differentiator.
Key battlegrounds
Japan will aim to frustrate and limit space — set-piece quality on both ends could prove decisive. Sweden will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Daichi Kamada (P(scores) 6.4%) against Alexander Isak (6.9%) — their impact could prove decisive. Sweden play a more direct game while Japan build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Japan's Hajime Moriyasu (8.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Graham Potter (1.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
For Yūto Nagatomo, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Japan or Sweden.
- Stage:
- Group F · Matchday 3
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Calibração pós-jogo é gratuita. Quando este jogo terminar, a retrospectiva de previsão vs resultado — probabilidade pré-jogo vs resultado realizado, Brier score, log loss e xG final vs previsto — será publicada na página de retrospectiva, aberta para todos.
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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how Japan v Sweden plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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