Colombia

Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0

CONMEBOL·Groupe K·FIFA #13

Top-8 contender

Pragmatic side led by Luis Díaz, with David Ospina in goal.

Adversaire: Portugal (#6)
Clé: James Rodríguez (MF)

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Final squad announced · Colombia · 2026-05-25

Source: BBC ↗

Perspectives du tournoi

Analysis

Colombia are rated at 4.4% to win the tournament, placing them 8th in the field. This is a landmark tournament for the team — 7 caps for the senior side, 27 at kickoff. Drawn in Group K alongside Portugal, Uzbekistan, DR Congo, they are projected at 95.3% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Colombia under Néstor Lorenzo play a pragmatic game with 53% possession. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 18.9).

Path to success

Their route begins in Group K with Portugal, Uzbekistan, DR Congo, where the model projects a 43.3% chance of finishing top and 95.3% of advancing. From there the projected knockout path runs: round of 32 (60.8%), quarter-finals (34.8%), semi-finals (18.4%), the final (9.5%). Sustaining intensity through up to seven matches across three host countries will demand squad depth and adaptability.

What they must execute

Colombia play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B.

Controversial take

The model rates Colombia slightly higher than their FIFA ranking implies (a gap of 1.1 percentage points) — a modest divergence but one that reflects differences in how the two systems weight recent form.

Key numbers

4.4%Win probability8th in field

1975Elo ratingRanked 7th globally

18.9PPDA (press intensity)Lower = more pressing; 13th of 48

37.3%Tournament goal probability — James RodríguezTop projected scorer in the squad (MF)

4.4 yearsManager tenureNéstor Lorenzo

95.3%Group stage advance probabilityGroup K

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Pragmatic · style profile from 10 recent matches

Press

18.9

Build-up

6.2

Directness

6.6

Width (proxy)

437.5

Tempo

8.3

Set-piece reliance

12.4

What to watch: a slower tempo, holding and recycling possession.

Percentiles position Colombia against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group K finish · Colombia

Monte Carlo, 50,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

1st (group winner)
Advances to R32
42.8%
2nd (runner-up)
Advances to R32
40.7%
3rd
Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
12.7%
4th
Eliminated
3.8%

Stage progression · Colombia

, 50,000 sims

93.3%AdvAdvance from group
59.5%R16Round of 16
34.4%QFQuarter-final
18.1%SFSemi-final
9.3%FFinal
4.4%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Colombia

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Croatia30%

England22%

Panama20%

R16

Round of 16

Spain23%

Switzerland16%

Canada12%

Quarter-final

Argentina26%

Belgium11%

Uruguay9%

Semi-final

Brazil14%

France11%

England10%

Final

Spain16%

Argentina11%

Portugal10%

CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

L'effectif

Confirmed squad

Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28

Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.

Goalkeepers (1)

PlayerStat

David OspinaCaps-driven↘Atlético Nacional

129c78save%0.50

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

Davinson SánchezCaps-driven↘Galatasaray

77c45tackles0.39

Daniel Muñoz↘Crystal Palace

44c—0.77

Yerry MinaCaps-driven→Cagliari

52c25tackles0.50

Santiago AriasCaps-driven↘Independiente

66c30tackles0.33

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

James RodríguezGoals-driven↘Minnesota United

124c41assists0.83

Jefferson LermaCaps-driven↗Crystal Palace

64c3assists0.51

Jhon Arias↘Palmeiras

36c5assists0.80

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Luis Díaz↗Bayern Munich

72c21goals0.94

Jhon CórdobaRating-driven↘Krasnodar

21c6goals0.62

Cucho HernándezRating-drivenBetis

7c2goals0.76

Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)

PlayerStat

Camilo VargasCaps-driven↘Atlas★ Likely first sub

40c—0.51

Álvaro MonteroRating-drivenVélez Sarsfield★ Likely first sub

11c—0.57

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

Johan MojicaCaps-driven↗Mallorca★ Likely first subimpact 16/100

43c45tackles0.73

Jhon Lucumí→Bologna★ Likely first subimpact 8/100

35c—0.61

Deiver MachadoRecoveringRating-drivenNantes★ Likely first subimpact 17/100

14c—0.40

Willer DittaCaps-drivenCruz Azul

3c—0.00

Midfielders (7)

PlayerStat

Juan Fernando QuinteroCaps-drivenRiver Plate

47c11assists0.46

Richard Ríos↘Benfica★ Likely first sub

30c2assists0.77

Kevin CastañoRiver Plate

24c1assists0.63

Jorge CarrascalRating-drivenFlamengo★ Likely first sub

22c2assists0.66

Jaminton CampazRating-drivenRosario Central★ Likely first sub

9c0assists0.63

Juan PortillaRating-drivenAthletico Paranaense

8c0assists0.53

Gustavo PuertaCaps-drivenRacing de Santander

4c0assists0.00

Forwards (2)

PlayerStat

Luis SuárezRating-drivenSporting CP★ Likely first sub

10c4goals0.57

Andrés GómezRating-drivenVasco da Gama★ Likely first sub

6c2goals0.57

▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps: Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat: Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating: Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).

★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Pairwise club minutes: 2.25%; Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.

Club concentration: 0.184; How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.

Top-3 clubs share: 57%; 4 of 7 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

Crystal Palace2
Cagliari1
Tottenham1

Most-connected club pair

Daniel Muñoz + Jefferson Lerma — Crystal Palace, 2024-25 · 3,714 shared minutes

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

Luis DíazWingerLikely cover: Jaminton Campaz · 0.63Rosario Central0.31gap to repl.
Cucho HernándezStrikerLikely cover: Luis Suárez · 0.57Sporting CP0.20gap to repl.
Jhon AriasWingerLikely cover: Jaminton Campaz · 0.63Rosario Central0.17gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Calendrier du groupe

Group-stage schedule

MD	Date	Opponent	Venue
1	Jun 17, 2026	Uzbekistan	Mexico City, Mexico
2	Jun 23, 2026	DR Congo	Zapopan, Mexico
3	Jun 27, 2026	Portugal	Miami Gardens, United States

Confrontations directes

Buteurs projetés pour Colombia →

Histoires à suivre

Storylines

Updated 14 days ago

Strong in goalDavid Ospina

#1 starting-GK rating in the field — 1.00 on club-derived save metrics across 48 teams.

Dead-ballJames Rodríguez

Takes corners, free kicks, and penalties — the team's dead-ball threat.

NewcomerCucho Hernández

7 caps for the senior side, 27 at kickoff.

TouchlineNéstor Lorenzo

First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2022.

Forme et palmarès

Statistical profile

Pragmatic

Attack

Attack rating1.1510th/48

Shots per match10.927th/48

Chance quality0.13119th/48

Defence

Defence rating1.0643rd/48

Goalkeeper rating1.001st/48

GK: David Ospina

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share12.4%23rd/48

Penalty conversion71.4%40th/48

Penalty save rate22.9%20th/48

Style

Possession52.8%16th/48

Press intensity18.913th/48

Directness6.618th/48

Crossing volume437.519th/48

Long ball volume40.99th/48

Build-up length6.221st/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,72319th/48

Club familiarity0.0229th/48

Workload class: light

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored18 goals · 120 shots

Conceded6 goals · 108 shots

Open play
Set piece
Counter
Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 10 matches (CopaAmerica2024,WC2018). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs Uzbekistan

Win61.8%

Draw25.8%

Loss12.4%

Expected goals for1.55

Expected goals against0.53

Likeliest score0-1 (18.9%)

Both teams score32.8%

Clean sheet59.0%

Full fixture analysis →

vs DR Congo

Win66.9%

Draw24.3%

Loss8.8%

Expected goals for1.63

Expected goals against0.52

Likeliest score0-1 (18.4%)

Both teams score33.3%

Clean sheet59.2%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Portugal

Win34.2%

Draw27.0%

Loss38.8%

Expected goals for1.04

Expected goals against1.27

Likeliest score1-1 (13.7%)

Both teams score47.0%

Clean sheet28.2%

Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record5W · 3D · 2L

Goals21–10

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Competition
2026-03-29	NFrance	1–3	L	Friendly
2026-03-26	NCroatia	1–2	L	Friendly
2025-11-18	NAustralia	3–0	W	Friendly
2025-11-15	NNew Zealand	2–1	W	Friendly
2025-10-14	NCanada	0–0	D	Friendly
2025-10-11	NMexico	4–0	W	Friendly
2025-09-09	AVenezuela	6–3	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-04	HBolivia	3–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-10	AArgentina	1–1	D	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-06	HPeru	0–0	D	FIFA World Cup qualification

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Opponent	W-D-L	Last meeting
DR Congo	—	No prior meetings
Portugal	—	No prior meetings
Uzbekistan	—	No prior meetings

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Tournament	Year	Finish	W-D-L	Since then
Copa América	2024	Runner-up	4-1-1	Same head coach (Néstor Lorenzo) since 2022 23/35 of current pool (66%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup	2018	Round of 16	2-1-1	New head coach since then — now Néstor Lorenzo (appointed 2022) 10/35 of current pool (29%) were active that year
Gold Cup	2005	Semi-finals	2-0-3	New head coach since then — now Néstor Lorenzo (appointed 2022) 0/35 of current pool (0%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

Argentina · Copa América 2007
Finished runner-up
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 2012) and group draw.
Uruguay · Copa América 2021
Exited at the quarter-final
Argentina · Copa América 2004
Won the tournament

Perspectives du tournoi

Analysis

How they play

Path to success

What they must execute

Controversial take

Key numbers

How they play

Group K finish · Colombia?

Stage progression · Colombia?

Likely knockout path · Colombia

L'effectif

Confirmed squad?

Squad cohesion

Top clubs in projected XI

Most-connected club pair

Squad depth

Most irreplaceable starters

Calendrier du groupe

Group-stage schedule

Confrontations directes

Histoires à suivre

Forme et palmarès

Statistical profile

Attack

Defence

Set pieces

Style

Squad

Where goals come from

Group-stage matchups

Rating & probability history

Recent form (10 matches)

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Most similar past team-tournaments

Group K finish · Colombia

Stage progression · Colombia

Confirmed squad