Canada ★

Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0

CONCACAF·Groupe B·FIFA #27

R16 contender

Pragmatic side led by Jonathan David.

Formation récente : 4-4-2 (2 sur 3)

Adversaire: Switzerland (#17)
Clé: Jonathan David (FW)

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Final squad announced · Canada · 2026-05-27

Source: TSN ↗

Perspectives du tournoi

Analysis

Canada have home advantage as tournament hosts, and the model rates them at 0.2% to lift the trophy (24th in the field). Watch for Luc de Fougerolles — 20 at kickoff — 11 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick. Drawn in Group B alongside Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina, they are projected at 95.4% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Canada under Jesse Marsch play a pragmatic game with 49% possession. Their likely shape is a 4-4-2, though they have also used 3-4-3. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 20.6). They favour high-quality chances (xG/shot 0.156, among the best in the field).

Path to success

In Group B alongside Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada are projected at 95.4% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 47.0%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.

What they must execute

Canada play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of Canada broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

0.2%Win probability24th in field

1784Elo ratingRanked 25th globally

4-4-2Predicted formationFrom 3 observed matches

0.156xG per shottop quartile (5th of 48)

44.9%Tournament goal probability — Jonathan DavidTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)

2.4 yearsManager tenureJesse Marsch

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Pragmatic · style profile from 9 recent matches

Press

20.6

Build-up

5.9

Directness

6.8

Width (proxy)

400.8

Tempo

8.2

Set-piece reliance

What to watch: a slower tempo, holding and recycling possession.

Percentiles position Canada against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group B finish · Canada

Monte Carlo, 50,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

1st (group winner)
Advances to R32
41.1%
2nd (runner-up)
Advances to R32
41.4%
3rd
Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
14.1%
4th
Eliminated
3.4%

Stage progression · Canada

, 50,000 sims

93.7%AdvAdvance from group
46.0%R16Round of 16
14.2%QFQuarter-final
3.7%SFSemi-final
1.0%FFinal
0.2%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Canada

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

South Korea14%

Czech Republic13%

Mexico11%

R16

Round of 16

Portugal16%

Colombia14%

Netherlands13%

Quarter-final

Argentina21%

France13%

Spain10%

Semi-final

Spain13%

England11%

Brazil8%

Final

Spain18%

Argentina16%

France13%

CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

L'effectif

Confirmed squad

Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28

Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.

Goalkeepers (1)

PlayerStat

Dayne St. ClairRating-drivenInter Miami

19c—0.64

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

Alphonso DaviesCaps-driven↘Bayern Munich

58c42tackles0.16

Derek CorneliusCaps-drivenRangers

42c—0.62

Richie LaryeaRecoveringCaps-driven↘Toronto FC

73c—0.39

Alistair JohnstonCaps-driven→Celtic

56c—0.00

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

Tajon BuchananCaps-drivenVillarreal

58c8assists0.60

Stephen EustáquioCaps-driven↘Los Angeles FC

54c4assists0.73

Jonathan OsorioCaps-driven↘Toronto FC

89c8assists0.42

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Jonathan DavidCaps-driven↘Juventus

75c39goals0.69

Cyle LarinCaps-driven↘Southampton

88c30goals0.48

Tani OluwaseyiVillarreal

22c2goals0.44

Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)

PlayerStat

Maxime CrépeauCaps-drivenOrlando City★ Likely first sub

30c—0.00

Owen GoodmanRating-drivenBarnsley★ Likely first sub

0c—0.33

Defenders (5)

PlayerStat

Niko SigurRating-drivenHajduk Split★ Likely first sub

17c—0.62

Joel WatermanRating-drivenChicago Fire★ Likely first sub

17c—0.53

Moïse BombitoCaps-drivenNice

19c—0.00

Zorhan BassongRating-drivenSporting Kansas City★ Likely first sub

7c—0.21

Luc de FougerollesCaps-drivenDender

11c—0.09

Midfielders (5)

PlayerStat

Ismaël KonéSassuolo★ Likely first sub

38c0assists0.74

Liam MillarCaps-drivenHull City★ Likely first sub

39c3assists0.53

Jacob ShaffelburgLos Angeles FC★ Likely first sub

31c1assists0.60

Ali AhmedNorwich City

24c4assists0.50

Mathieu ChoinièreLos Angeles FC

22c1assists0.42

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Daniel JebbisonRating-drivenPreston North End★ Likely first subimpact 100/100

7c0goals0.37

Jacen Russell-RoweCaps-drivenToulouse★ Likely first sub

8c0goals0.00

Promise DavidRecoveringRating-drivenUnion Saint-Gilloise★ Likely first sub

8c3goals0.35

▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps: Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat: Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating: Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).

★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Low coverage: 1/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.

Pairwise club minutes: 0.00%; Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.

Club concentration: 1.000; How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.

Top-3 clubs share: 100%; 1 of 1 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

Villarreal1

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

Jonathan DavidStrikerLikely cover: Daniel Jebbison · 0.37Preston North End0.31gap to repl.
Dayne St. ClairGoalkeeperLikely cover: Owen Goodman · 0.33Barnsley0.31gap to repl.
Richie LaryeaFull-backLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level FB ~0.250.14gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Calendrier du groupe

Group-stage schedule

MD	Date	Opponent	Venue
1	Jun 12, 2026	Bosnia and Herzegovina	Toronto, Canada
2	Jun 18, 2026	Qatar	Vancouver, Canada
3	Jun 24, 2026	Switzerland	Vancouver, Canada

Confrontations directes

Buteurs projetés pour Canada →

Histoires à suivre

Storylines

Updated 14 days ago

League pedigree

Only 3 of 26 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.

From the spot

Converted only 3 of 5 career penalties (60%) — a wasteful record from the spot in knockouts.

TouchlineJesse Marsch

First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2024.

Dead-ballJunior Hoilett

Takes corners and free kicks — the team's dead-ball threat.

Forme et palmarès

Statistical profile

Pragmatic

Attack

Attack rating0.8124th/48

Shots per match10.336th/48

Chance quality0.1565th/48

Defence

Defence rating0.6015th/48

Goalkeeper rating0.4934th/48

GK: Dayne St. Clair

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share13.0%21st/48

Penalty conversion72.0%28th/48

Penalty save rate20.0%31st/48

Style

Possession49.2%27th/48

Press intensity20.619th/48

Directness6.812th/48

Crossing volume400.828th/48

Long ball volume31.233rd/48

Build-up length5.927th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter77839th/48

Club familiarity0.00020th/48

Workload class: low

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored5 goals · 98 shots

Conceded14 goals · 103 shots

Open play
Set piece
Counter
Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 9 matches (CopaAmerica2024,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Win57.9%

Draw24.5%

Loss17.6%

Expected goals for1.38

Expected goals against0.92

Likeliest score1-1 (13.3%)

Both teams score45.6%

Clean sheet39.9%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Qatar

Win64.3%

Draw23.1%

Loss12.7%

Expected goals for1.78

Expected goals against0.94

Likeliest score1-1 (11.5%)

Both teams score51.1%

Clean sheet39.2%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Switzerland

Win26.0%

Draw25.2%

Loss48.8%

Expected goals for0.89

Expected goals against1.64

Likeliest score0-1 (12.6%)

Both teams score47.9%

Clean sheet19.5%

Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record4W · 5D · 1L

Goals11–4

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Competition
2026-03-31	HTunisia	0–0	D	Friendly
2026-03-28	HIceland	2–2	D	Friendly
2025-11-18	NVenezuela	2–0	W	Friendly
2025-11-13	HEcuador	0–0	D	Friendly
2025-10-14	NColombia	0–0	D	Friendly
2025-10-10	HAustralia	0–1	L	Friendly
2025-09-09	AWales	1–0	W	Friendly
2025-09-05	ARomania	3–0	W	Friendly
2025-06-29	NGuatemala	1–1	D	Gold Cup
2025-06-24	NEl Salvador	2–0	W	Gold Cup

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Opponent	Meetings	W-D-L	Last meeting
Qatar	1	1-0-0	2022 — Win (2–0) · Friendly
Switzerland	1	1-0-0	2002 — Win (3–1) · Friendly
Bosnia and Herzegovina	0	—	No prior meetings

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Tournament	Year	Finish	W-D-L	Since then
Gold Cup	2025	Quarter-finals	2-2-0	Same head coach (Jesse Marsch) since 2024 31/31 of current pool (100%) were active that year
Copa América	2024	4th place	1-3-2	Same head coach (Jesse Marsch) since 2024 26/31 of current pool (84%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup	2022	Group stage	0-0-3	New head coach since then — now Jesse Marsch (appointed 2024) 18/31 of current pool (58%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Perspectives du tournoi

Analysis

How they play

Path to success

What they must execute

Controversial take

Key numbers

How they play

Group B finish · Canada?

Stage progression · Canada?

Likely knockout path · Canada

L'effectif

Confirmed squad?

Squad cohesion

Top clubs in projected XI

Squad depth

Most irreplaceable starters

Calendrier du groupe

Group-stage schedule

Confrontations directes

Histoires à suivre

Forme et palmarès

Statistical profile

Attack

Defence

Set pieces

Style

Squad

Where goals come from

Group-stage matchups

Rating & probability history

Recent form (10 matches)

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Group B finish · Canada

Stage progression · Canada

Confirmed squad