This is the plan we followed to build the prediction model from scratch — mapping the research landscape, building a baseline, and iterating. The pipeline is now live; this page explains the thinking that guided its development.
Behind the scenes
Our research roadmap
Summary + sample · full document is 1,181 words
Summary
Sample
Goals
- Build a defensible model of player quality and team strength in football.
- Translate those into match-outcome and event-level probabilities, published as research.
- Maintain rigorous calibration discipline so the published probabilities can be trusted.
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