Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Group G · Matchday 3

BelgiumvsNew Zealand

·20:00 local

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Belgium or New Zealand.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group G · Matchday 3

Both sides enter this fixture with several squad members facing fitness doubts, potentially impacting team selections. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Match-outcome probability

  • Belgium win
    70.1%
  • Draw
    20.5%
  • New Zealand win
    9.4%
Rank checkFIFA ranks New Zealand #86 in the world; the model ranks them #36 in this tournament field, 50 places higher than the FIFA list suggests. All 48 compared →

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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

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See exactly how Belgium v New Zealand plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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So wird das berechnet. Alle Torprozess-Ausgaben basieren auf einem gemeinsamen Dixon-Coles-Fit. Siehe Methodik.

Stand 2026-05-28