Group I · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Norway's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Senegal's direct transition game. The risk for Norway: getting caught between attacking and defending. Norway will expect to hold 56% possession. Senegal need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Senegal will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Erling Haaland's 10.9% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Senegal's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
Ståle Solbakken (6 years in charge of Norway) vs Pape Thiaw (2 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Idrissa Gueye. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Senegal or Norway.
- Stage:
- Group I · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 22 Jun
Senegal and Norway both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Senegal minus Norway: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 13'SubstitutionJ. Ryerson· M. PedersenNorway change: M. Pedersen.
- 43'GoalM. PedersenM. Pedersen scores for Norway.
- 46'SubstitutionF. Aursnes· P. BergNorway change: P. Berg.
- 48'GoalE. Haaland· M. OdegaardE. Haaland scores for Norway.
- GoalI. Sarr· S. ManeI. Sarr scores for Senegal.53'
- SubstitutionM. Diouf· I. JakobsSenegal change: I. Jakobs.54'
- SubstitutionP. Gueye· I. MbayeSenegal change: I. Mbaye.54'
- 58'GoalE. Haaland· P. BergE. Haaland scores for Norway.
- SubstitutionE. Mendy· M. DiawSenegal change: M. Diaw.63'
- SubstitutionL. Camara· P. CissSenegal change: P. Ciss.63'
- 71'SubstitutionA. Nusa· A. SchjelderupNorway change: A. Schjelderup.
- SubstitutionK. Koulibaly· P. M. SarrSenegal change: P. M. Sarr.72'
- 84'SubstitutionT. Heggem· L. OstigardNorway change: L. Ostigard.
- 84'SubstitutionA. Sorloth· O. BobbNorway change: O. Bobb.
- GoalI. Sarr· N. JacksonI. Sarr scores for Senegal.90'+3
Player involvement
Senegal
Norway
Pre-match forecast
goals
Die veröffentlichte Wahrscheinlichkeit für dieses Spiel wird bei der Aufstellungsbestätigung (≈1 Stunde vor Anpfiff) festgeschrieben und ändert sich danach nicht mehr. An dieser Zahl wird der Rückblick nach Abpfiff gemessen. Die Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit im Live-Bereich ist eine separate, verzögerte, beschreibende Schätzung; sie ersetzt die veröffentlichte Prognose nicht.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.9%
- 0–110.6%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–010.1%
- 1–27.9%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.