Group I · Matchday 2
← Previsão pré-jogoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Senegal win36.1%
- Draw27.5%
- Norway win36.4%
Analysis
The model sees this as an evenly-matched contest: Senegal 36.1%, draw 27.5%, Norway 36.4%. The Elo ratings are within 34 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group I fixture with advance probabilities of 77.2% for Senegal and 83.7% for Norway.
Tactical matchup
Senegal (transition heavy) meet Norway (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Norway typically dominate possession (56%) compared to Senegal's 47% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Senegal will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Bamba Dieng (P(scores) 3.5%) against Erling Haaland (11.7%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
Norway's Ståle Solbakken (6.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Pape Thiaw (2.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
For Idrissa Gueye, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Senegal or Norway.
- Stage:
- Group I · Matchday 2
One side faces a potential key defensive absence, while the other reports a clean bill of health; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Calibração pós-jogo é gratuita. Quando este jogo terminar, a retrospectiva de previsão vs resultado — probabilidade pré-jogo vs resultado realizado, Brier score, log loss e xG final vs previsto — será publicada na página de retrospectiva, aberta para todos.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Senegal v Norway plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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