Group I · Matchday 2
← Maç öncesi tahminLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Senegal win36.1%
- Draw27.5%
- Norway win36.4%
Analysis
The model sees this as an evenly-matched contest: Senegal 36.1%, draw 27.5%, Norway 36.4%. The Elo ratings are within 34 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group I fixture with advance probabilities of 77.2% for Senegal and 83.7% for Norway.
Tactical matchup
Senegal (transition heavy) meet Norway (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Norway typically dominate possession (56%) compared to Senegal's 47% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Senegal will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Bamba Dieng (P(scores) 3.5%) against Erling Haaland (11.7%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
Norway's Ståle Solbakken (6.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Pape Thiaw (2.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
For Idrissa Gueye, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Senegal or Norway.
- Stage:
- Group I · Matchday 2
One side faces a potential key defensive absence, while the other reports a clean bill of health; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Maç sonu kalibrasyonu ücretsizdir. Bu maç bittiğinde, tahmin ve sonuç özeti (maç öncesi olasılık ile gerçekleşen sonuç karşılaştırması, Brier score, log loss ve gerçekleşen xG ile tahmini xG) şu sayfada yayımlanır: özet sayfası, herkes için açık.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Senegal v Norway plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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