Group I · Matchday 1

← Vor-Spiel-Prognose
Scheduled
France
–:–
Senegal

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

  • France win
    54.6%
  • Draw
    27.2%
  • Senegal win
    18.2%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Analysis

The model gives France a moderate advantage at 54.6% versus 18.2% for Senegal (draw 27.2%). The Elo gap is substantial at 203 points in France's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group I fixture with advance probabilities of 97.3% for France and 77.2% for Senegal.

Tactical matchup

France (balanced) meet Senegal (transition heavy) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Senegal press significantly higher (PPDA 21.2) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.

Key battlegrounds

Senegal will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Marcus Thuram (P(scores) 8.1%) against Bamba Dieng (4.7%) — their impact could prove decisive. Senegal play a more direct game while France build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.

Situational factors

France's Didier Deschamps (14.5 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Pape Thiaw (2.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.

Match storyline

France enter as defending champions — every fixture carries the weight of that legacy.

Key numbers

54.6% / 27.2% / 18.2%H / D / ACalibrated ensemble probability
+203Elo differentialFrance 2081 vs Senegal 1878
1.39 – 0.71Expected goals (H – A)Dixon-Coles per-team rates
1-0 (16.5%)Modal scorelineMost likely exact full-time result
38.6%Both teams scoreP(both sides find the net)
8.1%P(goal) — Marcus ThuramHighest anytime-scorer probability in fixture

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group I · Matchday 1

Both sides face significant fitness concerns for key players, with potential absences that could shape the match. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Die Kalibrierung nach Abpfiff ist kostenlos. Wenn dieses Spiel endet, wird die Zusammenfassung Prognose vs. Ergebnis veröffentlicht: Vor-Spiel-Wahrscheinlichkeit gegenüber dem tatsächlichen Ausgang, Brier score, Log Loss und finale xG vs. prognostizierte xG, auf der Zusammenfassungsseite, offen für alle.

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how France v Senegal plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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So funktioniert die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Die veröffentlichte Vorab-Prognose wird beim Aufstellungs-Lock (T-1h) eingefroren und ändert sich nach Anpfiff nicht mehr; der Rückblick nach Abpfiff bewertet diese eingefrorene Zahl am Ergebnis. Die während des Spiels gezeigte Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit ist dasselbe Modell, neu ausgelesen anhand von Spielstand und Restzeit. Sie aktualisiert sich etwa einmal pro Minute, ist immer verzögert und ist eine beschreibende Forschungsgröße, kein Wettprodukt und kein Preis irgendeiner Art. Siehe /docs/methodology/ für die vollständige Einordnung.