Group I · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
France
3:1
Senegal

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Live descriptive stats

FranceSenegal
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
France1.501.89+0.39
Senegal0.730.50−0.23

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
11
6
Shots on target
8
2
Possession (%)
54%
46%
Corners
6
4
Fouls
5
9
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

France's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Senegal's direct transition game. The risk for France: getting caught between attacking and defending. Senegal's aggressive press (PPDA 21.2) against France's deeper build-up (PPDA 26.1) creates a clear territory question: can Senegal force errors high up, or will France play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Senegal will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Marcus Thuram carries the marginally higher scoring probability (8.6% vs 4.6%).

Off the pitch

Didier Deschamps (14 years in charge of France) vs Pape Thiaw (2 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

France are the defending champions. That brings quality but also the weight of being everyone's scalp match.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for France or Senegal.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group I · Matchday 1
Date:
16 Jun
Availability

France

France come in at close to full strength.

Senegal

Senegal come in at close to full strength.

What it means

France and Senegal both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

ライブ記述的スタッツと遅延付きライブ勝利確率 · 約30秒ごとに更新

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
France (above the line)Senegal (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 66' · K. MbappeGoal, 82' · B. BarcolaGoal, 90' · I. MbayeGoal, 90' · K. Mbappe

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, France minus Senegal: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

FranceSenegal
  • GoalK. Mbappe· M. OliseK. Mbappe scores for France.66'
  • 75'SubstitutionI. Sarr· I. MbayeSenegal change: I. Mbaye.
  • 76'SubstitutionL. Camara· H. DiarraSenegal change: H. Diarra.
  • SubstitutionO. Dembele· B. BarcolaFrance change: B. Barcola.80'
  • GoalB. Barcola· A. RabiotB. Barcola scores for France.82'
  • 83'SubstitutionP. Gueye· I. NdiayeSenegal change: I. Ndiaye.
  • 83'SubstitutionN. Jackson· B. DiengSenegal change: B. Dieng.
  • SubstitutionD. Doue· R. CherkiFrance change: R. Cherki.87'
  • 88'SubstitutionI. Gueye· P. CissSenegal change: P. Ciss.
  • 90'+5GoalI. Mbaye· I. NdiayeI. Mbaye scores for Senegal.
  • GoalK. MbappeK. Mbappe scores for France.90'+6

Player involvement

France

K. Mbappe66' Goal · 90'+6 Goal
B. Barcola80' Off · 82' Goal
AM. Olise66' Assist
AA. Rabiot82' Assist

Senegal

I. Mbaye75' Off · 90'+5 Goal
AI. Ndiaye83' Off · 90'+5 Assist
試合前モデルキックオフ前に固定

Pre-match forecast

France win
62.5%
Draw
25.9%
Senegal win
11.6%
France
1.50
expected
goals
Senegal
0.73

この試合の公開確率はスタメン確定時（キックオフ約1時間前）に固定され、その後は更新されません。試合後の振り返りが照合するのはこの数値です。ライブセクションのライブ勝利確率は別枠の遅延付き・記述的な推定値で、公開済みの予測に取って代わるものではありません。

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    15.4%
  • 1–1
    12.5%
  • 2–0
    12.0%
  • 0–0
    11.5%
  • 2–1
    8.8%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

3 – 1
France win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • France win· realised
    54.6%
  • Draw
    27.2%
  • Senegal win
    18.2%
Brier score
0.313
Log loss
0.605
xG (final / predicted)
1.89 / 1.39 · France
0.50 / 0.71 · Senegal
P(realised outcome)
54.6%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

予測 vs 結果の完全な振り返り →

ライブ確率の仕組み。 公開済みの試合前予測はスタメン確定（T-1h）時点で凍結され、キックオフ後は変わりません。試合後の振り返りでは、この凍結された数値を結果と照合します。試合中に表示されるライブ勝利確率は、同じモデルを現在のスコアと残り時間に合わせて読み直したものです。約1分ごとに更新され、常に遅延があり、記述的なリサーチ数値であって、遊技商品でも何らかの価格でもありません。全体の枠組みは /docs/methodology/ を参照してください。