Group I · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
France's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Senegal's direct transition game. The risk for France: getting caught between attacking and defending. Senegal's aggressive press (PPDA 21.2) against France's deeper build-up (PPDA 26.1) creates a clear territory question: can Senegal force errors high up, or will France play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Senegal will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Marcus Thuram carries the marginally higher scoring probability (8.6% vs 4.6%).
Off the pitch
Didier Deschamps (14 years in charge of France) vs Pape Thiaw (2 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
France are the defending champions. That brings quality but also the weight of being everyone's scalp match.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for France or Senegal.
- Stage:
- Group I · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 16 Jun
France and Senegal both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, France minus Senegal: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalK. Mbappe· M. OliseK. Mbappe scores for France.66'
- 75'SubstitutionI. Sarr· I. MbayeSenegal change: I. Mbaye.
- 76'SubstitutionL. Camara· H. DiarraSenegal change: H. Diarra.
- SubstitutionO. Dembele· B. BarcolaFrance change: B. Barcola.80'
- GoalB. Barcola· A. RabiotB. Barcola scores for France.82'
- 83'SubstitutionP. Gueye· I. NdiayeSenegal change: I. Ndiaye.
- 83'SubstitutionN. Jackson· B. DiengSenegal change: B. Dieng.
- SubstitutionD. Doue· R. CherkiFrance change: R. Cherki.87'
- 88'SubstitutionI. Gueye· P. CissSenegal change: P. Ciss.
- 90'+5GoalI. Mbaye· I. NdiayeI. Mbaye scores for Senegal.
- GoalK. MbappeK. Mbappe scores for France.90'+6
Player involvement
France
Senegal
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–015.4%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–012.0%
- 0–011.5%
- 2–18.8%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- France win· realised54.6%
- Draw27.2%
- Senegal win18.2%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.