Group F · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Tunisia's pragmatic setup will need to hold shape against Sweden's direct transition game. The risk for Tunisia: getting caught between attacking and defending. Tunisia's aggressive press (PPDA 22.5) against Sweden's deeper build-up (PPDA 31.2) creates a clear territory question: can Tunisia force errors high up, or will Sweden play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Sweden will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Tunisia adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. The scoring threat is evenly split: Emil Forsberg (4.5%) and Dylan Bronn (5.3%).
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
A Group F fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Sweden or Tunisia.
- Stage:
- Group F · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 14 Jun
Sweden and Tunisia both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Sweden minus Tunisia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalY. AyariY. Ayari scores for Sweden.7'
- GoalA. Isak· V. GyokeresA. Isak scores for Sweden.30'
- 43'GoalO. Rekik· H. MejbriO. Rekik scores for Tunisia.
- 54'Yellow cardR. Khedira· TrippingR. Khedira is booked — Tripping.
- GoalV. Gyokeres· A. IsakV. Gyokeres scores for Sweden.59'
- SubstitutionG. Gudmundsson· E. StroudSweden change: E. Stroud.65'
- SubstitutionB. Nygren· L. BergvallSweden change: L. Bergvall.65'
- 72'SubstitutionE. Saad· S. TounektiTunisia change: S. Tounekti.
- 72'SubstitutionY. Valery· M. BelhadjTunisia change: M. Belhadj.
- 72'SubstitutionE. Skhiri· E. AchouriTunisia change: E. Achouri.
- 83'SubstitutionR. Khedira· I. GharbiTunisia change: I. Gharbi.
- 84'SubstitutionA. Slimane· F. ChaouatTunisia change: F. Chaouat.
- SubstitutionJ. Karlstrom· M. SvanbergSweden change: M. Svanberg.84'
- GoalM. Svanberg· A. IsakM. Svanberg scores for Sweden.84'
- SubstitutionA. Isak· A. ElangaSweden change: A. Elanga.90'+1
- SubstitutionA. Bernhardsson· D. SvenssonSweden change: D. Svensson.90'+1
- GoalY. Ayari· L. BergvallY. Ayari scores for Sweden.90'+6
Player involvement
Sweden
Tunisia
Pre-match forecast
goals
Die veröffentlichte Wahrscheinlichkeit für dieses Spiel wird bei der Aufstellungsbestätigung (≈1 Stunde vor Anpfiff) festgeschrieben und ändert sich danach nicht mehr. An dieser Zahl wird der Rückblick nach Abpfiff gemessen. Die Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit im Live-Bereich ist eine separate, verzögerte, beschreibende Schätzung; sie ersetzt die veröffentlichte Prognose nicht.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.7%
- 1–013.1%
- 0–011.3%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–19.0%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Sweden win· realised42.4%
- Draw28.1%
- Tunisia win29.5%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.