Group F · Matchday 1
← Vor-Spiel-PrognoseLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Sweden win42.4%
- Draw28.1%
- Tunisia win29.5%
Analysis
Sweden carry a slight probability advantage at 42.4% versus 29.5% for Tunisia (draw 28.1%). The Elo ratings are within 83 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group F fixture with advance probabilities of 56.4% for Sweden and 34.1% for Tunisia.
Tactical matchup
Sweden (transition heavy) meet Tunisia (pragmatic) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Tunisia typically dominate possession (49%) compared to Sweden's 36% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match. Tunisia press significantly higher (PPDA 22.5) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.
Key battlegrounds
Sweden will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. Tunisia adapt shape to the opponent — tactical flexibility gives them options but demands quick reads. The individual battle features Alexander Isak (P(scores) 5.1%) against Seifeddine Jaziri (6.2%) — their impact could prove decisive. Sweden play a more direct game while Tunisia build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.
Match storyline
A Group F fixture that could shape the knockout-round picture for both sides.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Sweden or Tunisia.
- Stage:
- Group F · Matchday 1
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Die Kalibrierung nach Abpfiff ist kostenlos. Wenn dieses Spiel endet, wird die Zusammenfassung Prognose vs. Ergebnis veröffentlicht: Vor-Spiel-Wahrscheinlichkeit gegenüber dem tatsächlichen Ausgang, Brier score, Log Loss und finale xG vs. prognostizierte xG, auf der Zusammenfassungsseite, offen für alle.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Sweden v Tunisia plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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