Group F · Matchday 1
← Pronóstico previo al partidoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Sweden win42.4%
- Draw28.1%
- Tunisia win29.5%
Analysis
Sweden carry a slight probability advantage at 42.4% versus 29.5% for Tunisia (draw 28.1%). The Elo ratings are within 83 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group F fixture with advance probabilities of 56.4% for Sweden and 34.1% for Tunisia.
Tactical matchup
Sweden (transition heavy) meet Tunisia (pragmatic) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Tunisia typically dominate possession (49%) compared to Sweden's 36% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match. Tunisia press significantly higher (PPDA 22.5) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.
Key battlegrounds
Sweden will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. Tunisia adapt shape to the opponent — tactical flexibility gives them options but demands quick reads. The individual battle features Alexander Isak (P(scores) 5.1%) against Seifeddine Jaziri (6.2%) — their impact could prove decisive. Sweden play a more direct game while Tunisia build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.
Match storyline
A Group F fixture that could shape the knockout-round picture for both sides.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Sweden or Tunisia.
- Stage:
- Group F · Matchday 1
Both sides have potential absences, with one team facing a more impactful doubt. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
La calibración post-partido es gratuita. Cuando este partido termine, el resumen de pronóstico frente a resultado (probabilidad previa frente al resultado real, Brier score, log loss y xG final frente a predicho) se publicará en la página de resumen, abierta para todos.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Sweden v Tunisia plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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