Group F · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Japan defend deep and give Tunisia the ball. The question is whether Tunisia's pragmatic approach generates enough final-third creativity to break through. Tunisia's aggressive press (PPDA 22.5) against Japan's deeper build-up (PPDA 26.7) creates a clear territory question: can Tunisia force errors high up, or will Japan play through the press and find space behind it? Tunisia generate 26% of their xG from set pieces. Foul discipline and aerial duels from Japan matter more here than usual.
What decides it
Japan defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Tunisia adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. The scoring threat is evenly split: Daichi Kamada (6.2%) and Dylan Bronn (5.3%).
Off the pitch
Hajime Moriyasu (8 years in charge of Japan) vs Sabri Lamouchi (0 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Yūto Nagatomo. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Japan or Tunisia.
- Stage:
- Group F · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 20 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Japan
Japan: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.
- DoubtWataru Endo (midfielder) is carrying Foot injury — a depth-level fitness watch item.
Tunisia
Tunisia come in at close to full strength.
Both projected XIs look intact; the fitness concerns are at squad-depth level rather than among first-choice starters.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Japan minus Tunisia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalD. Kamada· K. NakamuraD. Kamada scores for Japan.4'
- GoalA. Ueda· K. ItakuraA. Ueda scores for Japan.31'
- 46'SubstitutionE. Saad· I. GharbiTunisia change: I. Gharbi.
- 46'SubstitutionD. Bronn· M. Ben HamidaTunisia change: M. Ben Hamida.
- 65'SubstitutionS. Tounekti· F. ChaouatTunisia change: F. Chaouat.
- GoalJ. Ito· A. UedaJ. Ito scores for Japan.69'
- SubstitutionD. Kamada· J. SuzukiJapan change: J. Suzuki.73'
- SubstitutionR. Doan· Y. SugawaraJapan change: Y. Sugawara.74'
- SubstitutionK. Nakamura· Y. SuzukiJapan change: Y. Suzuki.79'
- SubstitutionT. Tomiyasu· A. SekoJapan change: A. Seko.79'
- GoalA. Ueda· K. SanoA. Ueda scores for Japan.83'
- SubstitutionA. Ueda· K. GotoJapan change: K. Goto.84'
- 90'+1SubstitutionA. Abdi· E. AchouriTunisia change: E. Achouri.
- 90'+1SubstitutionE. Skhiri· R. KhediraTunisia change: R. Khedira.
Player involvement
Japan
Pre-match forecast
goals
A probabilidade publicada para esta partida é fixada na confirmação das escalações (≈1 hora antes do início) e não se atualiza depois. É o número que a revisão pós-jogo cobra. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo na seção Live é uma estimativa separada, com atraso e descritiva; ela não substitui a previsão publicada.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–016.9%
- 0–014.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 2–011.3%
- 0–18.9%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Japan win· realised54.6%
- Draw27.7%
- Tunisia win17.7%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.